Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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CONTENTS

Imagine … effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of a profound world recession Imagine … water stress in mid-continental North America Imagine … a major seven-year drought in West Asia Imagine … a crash in circumpolar Antarctic krill stocks

379

The ecological footprints of cities

243 245 246 249 252 258 261 266 267 272 273 274 275 277 280 280 281 282 283 285

Nairobi’s garbage

383 389 393 397

The rise of urban farming Urban improvement initiatives Sustainable commuting in Singapore A model for public transport systems

Reflections on the use of scenarios

Compact urban development and smart growth

CHAPTER 5 What to aim for

Urban growth in the Arctic

405 Suggestions for Action: Improving policy performance monitoring 405 Suggestions for Action: Strengthening international environmental legislation and compliance 406 Suggestions for Action: Changing trade patterns to benefit the environment 406 Technology transfer: lessons from the Montreal Protocol 407 Suggestions for Action: Valuing the environment 407 Suggestions for Action: Making the market work for sustainable development 408 Suggestions for Action: Further voluntary action 408 Suggestions for Action: Participatory management 409 Ways to strengthen local action 409

The interplay of rural and urban populations

Disasters Socio-economic effects of the 1997–98 El Niño

The 1999 earthquake in Izmit, Turkey China committed to risk reduction

Prevention and preparedness to reduce the costs of disasters

Environmental impacts of refugees in Africa Selected natural disasters: Asia and the Pacific

The Aral Sea: a human-induced

environmental and humanitarian disaster Being prepared: Viet Nam’s disaster reduction programme

The Rhine Action Plan on Flood Defence Baia Mare: analysis of a mining accident

El Niño and epidemic diseases

Ecological and social impacts of earthquakes in El Salvador 285 Vulnerability to natural hazards: a geo-referenced index for Honduras287 Major floods over the past 30 years 288 Kuwait Bay: a soup for disaster 293

CHAPTER 3 Vulnerability in a crisis area: Mount Nyiragongo

305 306 306

Culture and climate change

The hazards of living in high latitudes Floods caused by glacial lake outbursts 307 Africa’s Lake Victoria basin: multiple dimensions of vulnerability 307 Watershed management and flooding 308 Arsenic contamination in Bangladesh 309 Food security: is the Green Revolution losing momentum? 310 The cost of resource degradation in India 311 Breakdown of traditional coping mechanisms: Kenyan pastoralists 313 Advantages of foresight: predicting El Niño 314 Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) 314 Environmental vulnerability of small island developing states 315 A framework for assessing risk 317

CHAPTER 4 Narratives or numbers

321 329 334 339

Markets First

Policy First

Security First

Sustainability First 344 Imagine … an Environmental Protection Commission for Africa 362 Imagine … widespread surface and groundwater contamination 369 in Asia and the Pacific Imagine … a major food scare in Europe 373