Future Imperfect: Climate change and adaptation in the Carpathians

Executive summary

This synthesis report is directed at policy makers and the public in the Carpathian region. It brings together important findings and recommendations about cli- mate change impacts and adaptation from three linked research studies funded by the European Commission: • Climate of the Carpathian Region (CARPATCLIM), led by the Hungarian Meteorological Service, har- monized historic climate data from 1961–2010. Its main aim was to improve climate data to inves- tigate how the regional climate has changed over this period. It produced a high-resolution database for the Larger Carpathian Region, freely available at www.carpatclim-eu.org . • Carpathian Integrated Assessment of Vulnera- bility to Climate Change and Ecosystem-based Adaptation Measures (CARPIVIA) assessed the vulnerability to climate change of the Carpathian region’s main ecosystems. The project produced an inventory of climate change effects and ecosys- tem-based adaptation measures. For further infor- mation see www.carpivia.eu . • Climate change in the Carpathian Region (CarpathCC) examined the vulnerability of water, soil, forests, ecosystems and related production systems. It pro- posed concrete ecosystem-based adaptation mea- sures, and it assessed their costs and benefits. For further information see www.carpathcc.eu . Together these studies raise awareness about the ex- tent and impacts of climate change in six important sectors in the Carpathian region: water resources, for- ests, wetlands, grasslands, agriculture and tourism. They also support an informed and rapid response by decision-makers in the region in order to reduce the effects of climate change.

© Saskia Werners

The studies show that temperature and precipitation are changing throughout the Carpathians.

average temperature will increase by between 3ºC and 4.5ºC by the end of this century.

Increasing winter and summer temperatures threaten local and national policy objectives for agriculture, win- ter tourism, and rural development, and raise a host of economic and social issues. The average annual tem- perature has increased by 0.6ºC to 1.6ºC, particularly in the summer when the increase is expected to be at least 1.0ºC but could reach 2.4ºC. In the last 50 years, the strongest increase has been observed in the western and eastern part of the Carpathians and in the lower regions. Higher elevations have seen less temperature change. Projections estimate that the

Precipitation changes show even higher spatial variabil- ity. Annual precipitation has increased in most of the Carpathian region in the last 50 years with the exception of the western and south-eastern areas where there has been a decrease. In contrast, the north-east part of the region has seen an increase in precipitation of 300–400 mm in the last 50 years. Looking towards the future, pre- cipitation is expected to increase but with higher uncer- tainty. However, the wide range of estimates means that any statements about the future should be based on both observed changes from the past and model projections.

7

FUTURE IMPERFECT