FROZEN HEAT | Volume 2

1.6 CONSIDERATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

The future energy system could develop in a number of differ- ent directions, depending upon how we prioritize various ob- jectives, including climate change mitigation, energy security, economic development, air and water pollution, and human health. These considerations often compete with each other for the attention of policy-makers. Transforming the global energy system to achieve a sustainable future requires an in- tegrated approach that addresses a diverse set of objectives si- multaneously. The transformation is technically possible, but reaching it will require the rapid introduction of coordinated efforts to address global concerns. International technical and scientific cooperation on gas hydrate issues will help inform decision-makers and potentially lead to more effective and sus- tainable policies in the future. 1.6.1 GAS HYDRATES COULD SUPPORT GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY As the cleanest of the fossil fuel options, natural gas could be an important source of energy for any future energy scenario. Gas hydrates are believed to occur in abundance in many set- tings around the world. If this potential is confirmed, they will become highly valued as local energy resources, particu- larly for nations with limited conventional domestic energy options. A sound scientific understanding of the implica- tions and environmental consequences of gas hydrate pro- duction needs to be developed before there is strong pressure for wide-scale production. 1.6.2 CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IS A VITAL PARTNER TECHNOLOGY As most long-term business-as-usual energy scenario pro- jections show, the world is currently on a high greenhouse- gas-emissions pathway. Although nations are now making commitments to reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions or greenhouse gas intensity, it seems likely that atmospher-

ic carbon dioxide will increase to more than 450 parts per million by 2100. Beyond this level, according to the IPCC, dangerous climate change becomes likely. Expanded gas use can somewhat mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through reducing demand for less clean-burning fossil fuels. How- ever, it is possible that, without additional investment in miti- gating technologies, disincentives for nuclear and renewable energy could lead to a gas-fuelled future that does not meet greenhouse gas reduction targets. Carbon capture and storage technology could be a possible partner for the hydrocarbon industry. Research to evaluate production techniques that sequester carbon dioxide while producing methane from gas hydrates is currently under way. Policy-makers will need to consider developments in such technologies when making investment decisions about gas hydrates. 1.6.3 REGULATORY REGIME For many countries with a history of hydrocarbon develop- ment, regulations are well-established, with careful checks and balances to assure safety and environmental protection. For countries without a long history of hydrocarbon develop- ment and/or without a strong/efficient regulatory system, it may be desirable to provide international assistance to estab- lish sound regulatory regimes. It is, however, noteworthy that even with well-established regimes, failures like the Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon disasters occur. In this chapter, we discussed a long-term vision for the en- ergy system and the possible role of gas hydrates in the tran- sition towards this vision. Recent gas hydrate assessments suggest that such transformational pathways to a sustainable future are achievable in technological and economic terms. The latter are dependent on societal choices and carefully considered government policies and industry strategies.

FROZEN HEAT 24