FROZEN HEAT | Volume 2

1.5 IMPLICATIONS OF DEVELOPING GAS HYDRATES

In considering energy for sustainable development, the fol- lowing factors come into play: • economic impacts, such as boosting productivity for sus- tainable economic growth; • geopolitical considerations, such as energy security; • environmental impacts, such as air pollution and green- house gas emissions; and • societal impacts, such as improving living standards and enhancing safety and security. The economic, geopolitical, environmental, and societal im- pacts of gas hydrate development are introduced briefly below. 1.5.1 ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Understanding the economic impact of gas hydrates in- volves assessing a wide range of variables. Gas hydrates are a potentially vast source of natural gas. One of the most ap- pealing aspects of this potential new gas source is that large deposits may be distributed widely in marine and perma- frost environments around the globe, including in those re- gions with the greatest expected growth in energy demand. The possible direct market benefits of gas hydrate resources derive fundamentally from the sale of the produced natu- ral gas. Additional natural gas resources could translate not only into new and expanded economic activity, employment, and tax and royalty payments, among other benefits, but also into additional energy availability, mitigation of energy prices, and decreased price volatility. Gas hydrate research and development is also providing in- sight into the nature of geohazards relevant to conventional oil and gas drilling (Hadley et al. 2008; McConnell et al. 2012), with substantial economic impacts on deep-water and Arctic energy development. In addition, given the funda- mental nature of much continuing gas hydrate research and development, further efforts aimed at enabling production

will generate scientific knowledge about the development and physical/chemical nature of gas-hydrate-bearing sedi- ments. The scientific and, ultimately, economic value of this knowledge could potentially be considerable. For example, gas hydrate research is attempting to evaluate the role of gas hydrates in the environment over various time scales (e.g., Reagan and Moridis, 2008; 2009; Elliott et al. , 2011). This includes their role in the long-term global carbon cycle (Vol- ume 1 Chapter 2) and in near-term responses and potential feedbacks to climate change (Volume 1 Chapter 3), as well as the risks and implications of various gas-hydrate-related geohazards such as sea-floor instability. Gas hydrate research is one area where private investment may not be in accord with the potential public benefit. As a consequence, public-sector programs might be desirable in some instances. Other unconventional energy resources, such as coal bed methane and shale gas, have been devel- oped with the aid of government-supported research. Fifteen years ago, coal bed methane was an unknown resource. With focused research, development, and production incentives, coal bed methane now contributes nearly 10 per cent of U.S. natural gas production, and global production is expected to grow from about 105 Bcm in 2011 to about 150 Bcm in 2021 (M&M 2011). 1.5.2 ENERGY SECURITY IMPLICATIONS The uninterrupted and affordable supply of vital energy ser- vices is a high priority for every nation. Energy security in- volves more than just reliable and affordable energy. It also includes issues of diversification, mitigation of supply dis- ruptions, globalization of the energy chain, and economic stability. The concept of energy security, however, is strongly context-dependent. For most industrialized countries, ener- gy security is related to import dependency. Many emerging economies without sufficient energy resources have addi-

A GLOBAL OUTLOOK ON METHANE GAS HYDRATES 21