FROZEN HEAT | Volume 2
time frame (IEA 2011b). A recent report by the U.S. National Petroleum Council agreed with this assessment, but said that some portion of the U.S. gas hydrate resource “could be avail- able for development in the long term, beginning in the 2030- 2050 period…and with the potential for sustained growth over the remainder of the century” (NPC 2011). It seems reason- able to extend this conclusion as a conservative view of the
time frame for gas hydrate production in several other na- tions, particularly Japan, Korea, China, and India, which are aggressively pursuing gas hydrate research and development. The recently published Global Energy Assessment report (GEA 2012) explores possible transformational pathways for the future global energy system and includes gas hydrates in
Global primary energy consumption
10 Gigatonnes of Carbon Global CO 2
emission
ExaJoules
750
Renewables Nuclear Gas with CCS
8
Gas
Oil
Coal Coal with CCS Biomass
500
6
4
250
Coal with CCS
2
1860 0
0
1900
1940
1980
2020
2060
1900
1950
2000
2050
Sources:WEC (1998), IEA (2012), GEA (2012)
Figure 1.5: Global primary energy consumption by source. The figure on the left shows historical consumption from 1900 to 2009 and the GEA scenario’s projections for the period 2010 to 2050. The figure on the right shows global carbon dioxide emissions, both historical since 1860 and projected. The projections are based on one of three illustrative GEA pathways that were interpreted by two different modelling frameworks: IMAGE and MESSAGE. This figure shows IMAGE modelling results (IMAGE - GEA_med_450). Sources: WEC (1998), IEA (2012), GEA (2012).
A GLOBAL OUTLOOK ON METHANE GAS HYDRATES 19
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