FROZEN HEAT | Volume 2

1.4 ENERGY SCENARIOS AND THE ROLE OF GAS IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Scenarios are representations of ways the future might un- fold. They assist in understanding possible developments in complex systems. Projecting the future of energy production, transportation, and consumption (the energy system) is sub- ject to numerous uncertainties. These uncertainties include – but are not limited to – future energy prices, economic growth, demographic changes, technological advances, and government policies. Energy system scenarios have been de- veloped by many international and national organizations and institutions. These include the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World Energy Council (WEC), and Energy Modelling Forum (EMF). The majority of global energy scenarios predict a substantial increase in global energy demand by 2050. Long-term busi- ness-as-usual energy system projections, such as those con- ducted by the IEA, uniformly predict steady increases in the use of fossil fuels, including natural gas, over the next sev- eral decades. For example, the IEA’s 2010 Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) presents a Baseline 2050 scenario that as- sumes no changes in existing carbon-management policies. This scenario projects that use of all fossil fuels, particularly coal, will increase dramatically to keep pace with future de- mand (IEA 2010). In contrast, the BLUE Map 2050 scenario, also presented in ETP 2010 (IEA 2010), is designed to depict one possible least-cost path to cutting global carbon dioxide emissions in half by 2050. The BLUE Map 2050 scenario shows that energy demands can still be met with decreases in coal and oil use, unchanging production of natural gas, and expansion of nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency, and carbon capture and storage technologies.

recent years. The unexpected expansion of unconventional gas commerciality, particularly in North America, has tapped resource volumes previously considered technically and eco- nomically unrecoverable. This has increased the potential that global natural gas resources might serve as a bridge fuel to the sustainable energy systems of the future. This new outlook is reflected in the IEA’s Golden Age of Gas report (IEA 2011b), which was developed to adjust prior IEA base- line scenarios to reflect rapidly changing perspectives on the global availability of unconventional gas resources. This re- port indicates that expanded unconventional gas could drive global gas utilization from 3.3 to 5.1 Tcm/y by 2035, eclipsing coal use by 2030 and mitigating expected increases in energy costs. Further expansion and diversification of the energy supply (in terms of both fuel types and geographic sources) are also positive developments with respect to global energy security. From an environmental standpoint, a greater mar- ket share of gas at a given level of energy demand generally results in modest decreases in global greenhouse gas emis- sions associated with energy production and use (IEA 2011b). The projected greenhouse gas reduction due to expanded gas use derives primarily from the partial displacement of coal or oil use. However, the additional potential displacement by nu- clear and renewable energy sources must also be considered. In the IEA gas study (IEA 2011b), this interaction resulted in a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but these reduc- tions alone were not sufficient to achieve the desired total car- bon emissions levels (Figure 1.5). Cumulative environmental impacts, which include other land, air, and water impacts be- yond greenhouse gases, are much more complex to resolve. The IEA report explicitly excluded consideration of gas hy- drates in its analysis of the period up to 2035, assuming that they were unlikely to have any significant impact within that

The potential for natural gas to be part of a practical solution to global carbon management has gained greater attention in

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