Environment and Security

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Environment and Security 16 /

Andjian produces much grain, fruits in abun- dance, excellent grapes and melons. So many they are that in the melon season it is not customary to sell them out at the fields. There are no pears better than those of Andjian. Andjianis are all Turks; everyone in town or bazar knows Turki. The speech of the people resembles the literary language.

In the analysis below we will try to assess general patterns and trends as well as enumerating and prioritizing specific locations and issues that can be considered problem areas or ‘environment-security hotspots’ from an environmental and conflict-related perspective. We will pay particular attention to the subnational level, in particular vulnerable marginal land such as arid plains, mountain areas with highland-lowland interactions and transnational river basins. Population of the Ferghana valley Given the importance of agriculture for the whole Ferghana basin, natural resources such as land and water have historically been among the most important factors in the region’s development. The size of the population depending In themountains round Ferghanaare excellent summer pastures. Thereand nowhere else grows the tabalghu, a tree with red bark. They make staves and bird-cages of it; they scrape it into arrows. It is an excellent wood and because of its rarity is carried to distant places. There are turquoise and iron mines in these mountains.

on these resources is consequently a key political, security and environmental issue.

The Ferghana valley is the most populous area in Central Asia , with about 20% of the total population. According to estimates it is home to over 10 million people. The Ferghana territories account for 50%of Kyrgyzstan’s population, 31% of Tajikistan’s population and 27% of Uzbekistan’s inhabit- ants (although Uzbek territory only accounts for 4.3%of the total area). In absolute terms, over 6 million Uzbek, 2 million Kyrgyz, and 1.5 million Tajik inhabit the valley. Population density is extremely high in the Uzbek part of the valley (200-500 persons per sq km) compared to the Tajik (70 per sq km) or Kyrgyz parts (20-40 per sq km). High population densities increase the risk of depletion of natural resources and thus of competition and even conflict

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