Environment and Security

Environment and Security / 13

Regional context

The Andjian torrent goes to Andjianafter having traversed the suburbs of Osh. Orchards lie along both its banks; all the Osh gardens overlook it. Their violets are very fine; they have running waters and in spring are most beautiful with the blossoming of many tulips and roses.

A very beautiful stone, with wavy red and white patterns, was found in the Bara Koh in ‘Umar Shaikh Mirza’s latter days. Knife handles, clasps for belts and many other things are made from it. For climate and for pleasantness, no township in all Farghana equals Osh.

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Unemployment (both forced and voluntary) is high in all three countries especially among young people and inmarginalized regions . OCHA estimates that unemployment is probably running at about 10%-20% for Kyrgyzstan, 30% in Tajikistan and 30%-40% in Uzbekistan. The job market is steadily deteriorating. Moreover, in all three countries almost half the population is under the age of 17 and will soon be joining the workforce drastically increasing unemployment 11 . Widespread poverty and unemployment have prompted substantial internal migration frommarginalized rural areas to urban areas (particularly capital cities). A second coping mechanism has been the high level of labour migration to Russia. This mainly concerns men. It has worked as a major safety valve for the region, especially for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and more recently Uzbekistan. If we now look at the mechanisms fostering insecurity discussed above it will come as no surprise that the cur- rent situation in Central Asia displays all the factors that encourage insecurity. The period following independence proved amajor challenge for the newly created states. Deprived of Moscow’s human and financial resources the governments of the various coun- tries had to cope with an accumulation of negative forces: rapid decline in the living conditions of large segments of the population, with a dramatic increase in poverty, unemploy- ment, insecurity and inequality; breakdown of communal and state services; enforcement of restrictive border regulations impacting negatively on regional economies; emigration of key minorities and the development of labour migration as a survival mechanism for whole regions. This process has gone hand-in-hand with high birth rates and increased economical and/or political marginalization of groups (ethnic minorities) and regions. Central Asian economies continue to depend on extraction of raw materials and agriculture (especially the cotton monoculture inherited from the Soviet epoch). The significance of land and water has increased considerably. Most jobs in industry and other trades have collapsed or pay very little. In many cases agriculture is now the main source of income. Under such circumstances we may observe that all the factors listed in the table as fostering insecurity (see ‘Understanding Links between Environment and Security’ above) are on the increase.

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Output by the Central Asian economies dropped sharply af- ter independence with a subsequent fall in living conditions. Poverty is widespread, especially in rural areas. Communal services 9 have broken down in many areas. For example several parts of the Ferghana valley, including cities such as Andijan, Ferghana, Osh and Khujand, suffer regular power and gas cuts, straining relations between the population and local authorities, increasingly the focus of local protest. Only recently has the economy in some countries shown signs of improving, but high GDP growth rates have not helped to reduce poverty and social inequality 10 . The economic crisis that followed independence exacerbated economic dispari- ties between urban and rural areas and between regions, contributing to greater horizontal inequality between popu- lation groups and regions. With several sub-state regions becoming increasingly marginalized there is a risk they will turn into “incubators of conflict” (ICG 2001).