Environment and Security

Environment and Security 12 /

Osh has a fine climate, an abundance of running waters and a most beautiful spring season. Many traditions have their rise in its excellencies.

strengthening identities, both national identities and – for many opposition groups – political identities too. Hence Islam has at present a double role: as a stabilizing factor as well as a mobilizing factor since opposition groups have used Islam to channel grievances. Finally political transition and change is an issue of concern. Central Asian countries are still governed by leadership with a common background and socialization. This has played a positive role in averting crises and overcoming tensions. But centralized politics means interstate relations depend a great deal on personal relations within and between central government circles and makes the issue of political change extremely sensitive, as was evident during recent events in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. Economic factors The rationale of the common Soviet market and economic system has disappeared, forcing Central Asian states to find their own position in the global market without the support of a redistributive economy. Their geographical position, landlocked between two economic and political “giants” – China and Russia – makes their task difficult, especially for poor countries. The five countries are differently endowed in terms of natural resources, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan benefiting the most from their large energy resources (oil and gas). Control of such reserves and their transport is a key factor in the interest of neighbouring states (Russia, the Caucasus, Iran, Afghanistan and China) and global players such as the US. Though there is nominal support for economic reform, practical implementation of such policies has varied from one country to the next, and within individual countries from one region to another. The picture is the same for issues such as land privatization. This phenomenon has contributed to increased political, cultural and economic fragmentation of a region formerly characterized by con- siderable integration in a larger market, with a single set of (Soviet) laws and regulations and the redistributive benefits of the Soviet economy. Central Asia produces raw materials that need to be transported over long distances to reach markets, local ones being limited in size and purchasing power. Creating national borders and levying customs duty makes trade and transport expensive and difficult. Restrictive border management policies and practices, combined with legal

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and illegal levies and duties, have a negative impact on trade and living conditions in areas such as the Ferghana valley. Such practices favour harassment, corruption and smuggling 7 and strain relations between the population and border forces. Interstate customs agreements have so far been ineffective. All three economies are predominantly agricultural . Ag- riculture employs 67% of the labour force in Tajikistan, 53% in Kyrgyzstan and 45% in Uzbekistan 8 . They all rely on primary exports (gold, aluminium, cotton), exposing them to fluctuating world prices. Heavy reliance on cotton production (see the next chapter) and other crops means their economies depend a great deal on seasonal climate and weather conditions, and the availability of arable land and adequate amounts of water for irrigation (see discus- sion in next chapter) .