Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

Eastern Caspian

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Environment and Security

actions, and transnational river basins, insta- bility related to environmental degradation can contribute to conflict development (Bae- chler, 1999). When discussing the importance of environ- mental and demographic factors in modern conflict, academic research points out that the loss of livelihoods is, to a greater extent than poverty, the common denominator for many recent internal conflicts. Livelihood definition A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims, and access) and ac- tivities required for a means of living. (Chambers and Conway, 1992) Ohlsson (2005) argues that “while poverty may be a near-endemic condition in certain socie- ties, loss of livelihoods marks a rapid transi- tion from a previous stable condition of relative welfare into a condition of poverty or destitu- tion”. It is the rapid process of change result- ing in a sudden fall into poverty that creates the potential for livelihood conflicts . Losses of livelihoods have many causes in the contem- porary world, most of them being related to job scarcity, population increase, and degra- dation of key environmental resources. Scarcity can arise either when the quality and quantity of resources decreases ( supply-in- duced scarcity ), population grows ( demand- induced scarcity ) and/or resource access becomes more unequal ( structural scarcity ) (Homer-Dixon, 1999). The UN Secretary-Gen- eral, Ban Ki-Moon, corroborated the scarcity hypothesis during the recent Security Council

debate on the impact of climate change, say- ing that “when resources are scarce – whether energy, water or arable land – our fragile eco- systems become strained, as do the coping mechanisms of groups and individuals. This can lead to a breakdown of established codes of conduct, and even outright conflict” 2 . Changes in the natural environment affect human societies and their survival capaci- ties. Recent reports underline the fact that changes in climatic conditions “will over- stretch many societies’ adaptive capacities within the coming decades. This could result in destabilization and violence, jeopardizing national and international security” (WBGU, 2007:1). Such changes could exacerbate ex- isting environmental crises such as drought, water scarcity and soil degradation, and intensify existing problems. Weak and frag- ile states are more exposed to the risks in- duced by climate change as their capacity to adapt may be rapidly overstrained and lead to increased instability (WBGU, 2007). Another approach in research has been to consider that dependence on natural re- sources, as measured by the percentage of GDP stemming from primary commodity exports, increases the risk of conflict (Col- lier et al., 2003). Recent analysis (Kahl, 2006) shows the importance of going beyond the abundance versus scarcity dichotomy. This is particularly true in the case of abundant energy resources, in high demand in national and global markets. Hence in an increasingly interdependent world, abundance and scar- city of resources need to be put into their context to understand how they become factors of security or insecurity.