Combating Poaching and Illegal Logging in Tanzania: Voices of the Rangers-Hands-on Experiences from the Field

POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION

82 per cent back in 2002, and it has likely increased since then. 40 Tanzania’s urban population of 16.9 million is likely to consume at least three quarters (1.32 million tons) of the charcoal produced in the country, while the rural population consumes the rest (440,000 tons). The rural population is able to rely more extensively on firewood than the urban population can, having it within walking distance. The average consumption of charcoal per rural capita is 36 kg, or 84 kg per urban capita on average, given that the urban population consume three quarters of the charcoal for 2014. However, as suggested below, there are indications that total unofficial consumption is two and a half times as large.

In order to evaluate the impact of the illegal charcoal trade on deforestation and potential threat to finance, it is necessary to assess the demographic development as an indicator of the demand for charcoal in the near and medium term. Tanzania’s population in 2015 was 53.5 million citizens, with urbanization at 31.6 per cent and rising by 5.36 per cent per year. 38 Half of the charcoal produced is consumed in Dar es Salaam, with 500,000 tons in 2009, according to the World Bank. 39 With a population of 5.1 million, the city currently only consumes about a third of the urban-consumed charcoal in the country. In Malawi the urban population consumes 90 per cent of the charcoal, whereas in Kenya this stood at

2050

2015

2030

Tanzania

2010

129,417,000

52,291,000

79,54,000

Total population

44,973,000

68,569,000

16,528,000

33,257,000

Urban population

12,644,000

53

31,6

41,9

Percentage urban

28

12,132,500

4,655,000

6,982,500

Charcoal consumption (250 per cent of official production)

4,020,000

37

36

35

Charcoal consumption per citizen (kg)

36

4,853,000

1,862,000

2,793,000

Charcoal production tons (FAO) -> projections

1,608,000

38,984,000

23,570,000

25,772,000

Fuelwood production m 3 (FAO, excludes charcoal)

22,836,000

43

32

39

30

Charcoal official production as percentage of fuelwood

29,118,000

11,172,000

16,758,000

9,648,000

Tree volume required for official charcoal production level (x6) m 3

Tree volume required for estimated charcoal consumption level (x6) m 3 Deforestation hectares (300 hectares/day = 109,500 ha per year = 0,11 hectare/ton charcoal) based on official production Deforestation hectares (300 hectares/day = 109,500 ha per year = 0,11 hectare/ton charcoal) based on unofficial consumption

72,795,000

27,930,000

41,895,000

24,120,000

533,830

204,820

307,230

176,880

1,334,575

512,050

768,075

442,200

49 (2013)

22

Charcoal import tons (FAO)

45 (2013)

990

Charcoal export tons (FAO)

Table 1. Tanzania projected charcoal consumption in 2030 and 2050

48