Climate Change in Eastern Europe

CLIMATE CHANGE IN EASTERN EUROPE

Impacts of climate change

Winter air temperature and snow depth in Ukrainian Carpathians

According to World Bank research, due to the size of its ter- ritory and diversity of landscape Ukraine is more susceptible to the impacts of climate change than other Eastern Euro- pean countries. Moldova and the south of Ukraine are the most vulnerable, whilst Belarus has the highest potential for adaptation. Impacts of climate change can already be seen in the region today, primarily in the agriculture, forestry and water sectors. On the one hand warming has led to increased productivity by boreal forests, but against that there has been an increase in hazardous forest and peat fires, a disruption of the stability of ecosystems, replacement of some species, and a growing probability of population explosions among forest pests. Over the last decade changes in the depth of snow cover and the irregularity of snowfall have been observed in the Carpathian mountains, the large tourist centre of Ukraine. It is now more common for snow to fall in November-December and then again in February after extremely strong frosts in January. The snow sometimes melts and then falls again in March. Strong cold spells in late spring have also become more common. Although no specific research has been done on the relationship between the number of tourists and snow cover at the ski resort of Bukovel, it appears that, so far, there has not been a significant decline in the quantity of tourists. Snow cannons are used if additional snow cover is needed. However, the resort is disrupted by winter rain which, as a consequence of climate change, has become more frequent over the last five years. This is potentially a real threat to the number of tourists in the Carpathians, and could in the long-term cause financial losses for local residents for whom tourism is the main source of income.

Winter average air temperature (Yaremche, 650 metres)

Average snow depth (Tatariv village, 660 metres)

°С

cm

0

100

-9 -7 -8 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1

80

60

40

20

-10

0

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

1970

1980

1990

2000

Produced by ZOI Environment Network, 2011.

Source: Carpathian mudflow station, Yaremche, Ukraine, 2011.

42