Caspian Sea: State of the Environment 2019

lion. At present, the zone has 33 world-class hotels and a leisure and entertainment industry is being developed, including water parks, yacht and sports clubs, restaurants, camping sites, amusement parks and shopping centres. A seven-kilometre canal cuts through the resort, with well-equipped recreation areas planned for either side. To date, a new airport has been commissioned in the city of Turkmenbashi and new roads, a pow- er station, a desalination plant, sewage treatment plants and water supply networks are being built. In 2018 the Turkmenbashi International Sea Port was commissioned, and new ships, including cruise liners, were introduced. The tourist zone will increase to 5,000 hectares (Avaza 2018), with investments funding the construction of luxury health resorts and hotels. Construction of other facilities and infrastructure is continuing in the area. The Balkan Region has significant recre- ational resources and unique attractions for tour- ists, such as Mollakara, Karshi, Kara Kala and No- hur in Magtymguly (DN Tours n.d.). In Turkmenistan, Avaza NTZ is designed to both preserve and improve the state of the environ- ment. As an example, more than 500 hectares of land in Avaza have been dedicated for use as plantations. Plans are also in place to add a new park to the green strip that stretches across the tourist zone for many kilometres. 2 3.3. Indirect drivers The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has confirmed that climate change is im- pacting natural and human systems around the world, which has been proven through measured increases in the atmosphere’s greenhouse gas con- centrations as well as global mean temperatures. Atmosphere and ocean temperatures have also increased, with ocean temperature increases ac- counting for approximately 90 per cent of energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. Around 60 per cent of this energy is stored in the upper layer (0–700 metres) of seas, while 40 per cent is stored 700 metres, causing sea levels to rise. The world’s cryosphere is also decreasing, which is further con- tributing to sea level rise and a lower albedo. 3 Global 3.3.1. Climate change

sea levels are rising faster than they have in the past two millenniums (Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- mate Change [IPCC] 2013), yet another sign that global warming is accelerating and causing ripple effects that will influence future global warming. According to the IPCC, there is a tendency for warming in the countries of North and Cen- tral Asia that border the Caspian Sea, which in the northern part is combined with an increase in abundant rainfall in the winter. In summer, warming is observed in the central regions along with a decrease in the amount of precipitation. Warming in these areas is higher than the glob- al average, and, according to modelling predic- tions, extreme precipitation is likely to occur more often. It should be noted that modelling the changes in these regions is challenging, due to a lack of observation data and difficulties for models to consider the influence of mountain landscapes when calculating climatic parame- ters. It is assumed that the duration, intensity and frequency of thermal waves are likely to increase in these areas and there is a high probability that temperatures in the Caspian region will continue to rise during this century (IPCC 2013). The biggest driver of climate change is positive radiative forcing 4 caused by the burning of fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, followed by land-use change. Car- bon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will influence the carbon cycle by increasing the amount of CO 2 that can be absorbed in the atmosphere. These emissions will also further contribute to ocean acidification, as oceans absorb around 30 per cent of released CO 2 (IPCC 2013). Recent data show that CO 2 is continuing to increase in the atmosphere, after reaching unprecedented levels in 2016. This is mainly due to anthropogenic in- fluences on carbon and other biogeochemical cy- cles, which are affecting the global climate (IPCC 2013). These drivers will have significant and various consequences at the regional level. In Azerbaijan, there have been significant chang- es in annual temperatures, precipitation and wind patterns. The country is suffering from the adverse effects of climate change, such as floods, droughts and rising temperatures (National Hy- drometeorological Department).

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