Caspian Sea 2011

2010

Economy The economic prognosis for the Caspian littoral states is generally positive. After the impressive growth of the GDP (particularly for Azerbaijan) in 2002-06 and the economic slow-down in 2007- 09 for all countries in the region, the prognosis until 2015 is more modest, predicting the stable annual growth of GDP in the range of 3-9 per cent (IMF 2010). GDP based on (PPP) per capita GDP 1 is a signifi- cant indicator of economic prosperity. It reveals a quadrupling in Azerbaijan and a more than tri- pling in Turkmenistan, followed by factor 2.6 for Kazakhstan, 2 for Russia and 1.6 for Iran between 2000 and 2010 (IMF 2010). This is a promising out- look, since it indicates the availability of more re- sources for social and environmental needs. It is supported by a slow but steady growth of life ex- pectancy and education indices as reflected by the International Human Development Index (HDI). Economic growth for the next 5 years is predicted to be slower, with a projected 1.15 – 1.55 times increase of GDP per capita (IMF 2010). GDP per capita in 2010 $ has reached respectively: $15,836 in Russia, $12,602 in Kazakhstan, $10,864 Iran, $10,033 in Azerbaijan, and $6,785 in Turkmenistan (www.economywatch.com). These increases, how- ever, are strongly linked to oil and gas revenues and can be hampered by inflation. Since the year 2000, average consumer prices have nearly dou- bled in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and more than tripled in Russia and Iran (IMF 2010). According to the IMF prognosis, the trend will continue until 2015, looking more dramatic for Iran with a prognosis for inflation six times higher in 2015 than in 2000. The structure of national economies of the Cas- pian littoral states is determined by the industri- al and services sectors. The region demonstrated 1 A nation’s GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at prices prevailing in the United States. This is the measure most economists prefer when looking at per-capita welfare and when comparing living conditions or use of resourc- es across countries.

GDP by sector

Percentage

80

AGRICULTURE

Iran Russia Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2000 2002

2004

2006

2008 2009

80

INDUSTRY

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2000 2002

2004

2006

2008 2009

80

SERVICES

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2000 2002

2004

2006

2008 2009

Source: World Bank on line database, 2010.

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