Blue Carbon

are seeing shifts in species distributions in the North Sea with nearly two thirds of the commercially important species shift- ing northward in mean latitude or deeper in depth or both since 1970 (Perry et al. , 2005; Dulvey et al. , 2008). Recent projections of changes in the distribution ranges of more than 1,000 com- mercially important fish species, based on climate change sce- narios to 2050 predict numerous species extinctions in sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas (Cheung et al. , 2009). Climate change will also impact the levels of invasive marine or- ganisms, which often damage commercial fish stocks. Studies predict species invasion will be profound in the Arctic and South- ern Oceans (Cheung et al. , 2009). Indeed, together these changes could result in a significant turnover of species of more than 60% of present biodiversity. This has the potential to disrupt a range of marine ecosystem services including food provisioning.

Fact box 7. Healthy aquatic ecosystems con- tribute to food security and livelihoods Fisheries and aquaculture contribute significantly to food secu- rity and livelihoods, but depend on healthy aquatic ecosystems. These contributions are often unrecognized and undervalued. Over 500 million people in developing countries depend, di- rectly or indirectly, on fisheries and aquaculture for their liveli- hoods. Fish (including shellfish) provides essential nutrition for 3 billion people and at least 50%of animal protein and essential minerals to 400 million people in the poorest countries. Aquaculture is the world’s fastest growing food production system, growing at 7% annually – but the production of ex- ternally fed aquaculture (48% of total aquaculture produc- tion) is largely dependent upon marine fisheries for feed. Fish products are among the most widely traded foods, with more than 37% by volume of world production traded inter- nationally. Natural barriers such as sand dunes, mangrove forests and coral reefs dampen the impacts of a range of coastal haz- ards, including storm/cyclone surges and tsunami waves, helping to protect coastlines from their full impact. Source: PaCFA, 2009 • • • • •

Climate change will impact across all the four dimensions (availability, stability, access and utilization) of food security.

Availability of aquatic products will vary through changes in eco- systems, production, species distribution and habitats. Changes will occur at regional and local levels in freshwater and marine systems due to ecosystem shifts and changing aquaculture op- tions, which depend on availability of key inputs. Production

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