Ahead of the Curve: GRID-Arendal Annual Report 2016

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Shatberashvili, N.; Rucevska, I.; Jørstad, H.; Artsivadze, K.; Mehdiyev, B.; Aliyev, M.; Fayvush, G.; Dzneladze, M.; Jurek, M.; Kirkfeldt, T. & Semernya, L. (2015). Outlook on climate change adaptation in the South Caucasus mountains. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal and Sustainable Caucasus. Nairobi, Arendal and Tbilisi. www.grida.no/publications/mo/south-caucasus

Schoolmeester, T.; Saravia, M.; Andresen, M.; Postigo, J.; Valverde, A.; Jurek, M.; Alfthan, B. and Giada, S. 2016. Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains. Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal and CONDESAN. Nairobi, Arendal, Vienna and Lima. www.grida.no/publications/mo/tropical-andes

Climate change in the Tropical Andes

1950-2000

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

ECUADOR

Percentage Seasonality*

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 ˚C Annual average temperature

Annual average rainfall

Millimetres

500

2000 4000

1000

3000 5000

30 0 40 60 80 100

PERU

BOLIVIA

*Precipitationof the wettestconsecutive threemonthsdividedby annualprecipitation

Projection for 2061-2080 RCP 8.5

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

ECUADOR

Projected temperature change*

Projected seasonality* change** Percentage points

Projected precipitation change

˚C

Percentage

2.5

3.0 3.5

4.0

-10 0 -5 1 2 3 4 5 7

0 -10 -20 -40 10 20 40

PERU

BOLIVIA

*Climatemodels agreewellon directionofchange

*Agreement betweenclimate modelscanbe low

**Agreement betweenclimate modelscanbe low

Sources:Hijmans,R.J.,etal.,Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces forglobal land areas,2005,atworldclim.org

Mapshavebeenproduced within theSMD4GCprogram atUZH (Switzerland)

Map from the Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains

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