Adaptation in the Himalayas: Knowledge, Action and Results

The future of climate and water in the HKH region Projections for selected HKH river basins, 2041–2050 The future of climate and water in the HKH region Projections for selected HKH river basins, 2041–2050

10

5

15

10

5

15

0

20

10

0

20

5

15

10

5

15

0

20

C HINA

0

20

C HINA

10

5

15

10

5

15

10

5

0

20

15

10

5

0

20

15

0

20

10

A FGHANISTAN

0

20

5

15

10

A FGHANISTAN

5

15

0

20

Annual runoff and projections Millimetres per year

0

3

INDUS

0

20

1 500 Annual runoff and projections Millimetres per year

0

3

INDUS

1

2

1 500

1

2

P AKISTAN

0

3

P AKISTAN

SALWEEN

C HINA

0

3

0

3

BRAHMA- PUTRA

SALWEEN

C HINA

0

3

1

2

1 200

BRAHMA- PUTRA

0

3

1

2

1 200

GANGES`

0

3

1

2

0

3

MEKONG

B HUTAN 2

N EPAL 1

GANGES`

0

3

MEKONG

B HUTAN

2 N EPAL

1

1

2

1

2

1

2

900

900

RCP 4.5 Reference (1998–2007) RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5 Reference (1998–2007) RCP 8.5

I NDIA

I NDIA

M YANMAR

B ANGLADESH

600

M YANMAR

B ANGLADESH

600

Rainfall runoff Baseflow

Rainfall runoff Baseflow

Notes: RCP 4.5 ensemble means – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 watts per metre squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. It includes long-term global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP 8.5 ensemble means – RCP 8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of climate change policies. Notes: RCP 4.5 ensemble means – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 watts per metre squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. It includes long-term global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP 8.5 ensemble means – RCP 8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of climate change policies.

Temperature increase Degrees (C)

Precipitation increase Percentage

Snow melt

300

0 Temperature increase Degrees (C)

10 Precipitation increase Percentage

Snow melt

300

3

5

15

10

0

3

5

15

Glacier melt

1

2

0

20

Glacier melt

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 2

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

1

0

20

0

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

0

Source: Lutz, AF et al. (2014) ‘Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation.’ Nature Climate Change 4: 587–592

Source: Lutz, AF et al. (2014) ‘Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation.’ Nature Climate Change 4: 587–592

Changes in relative contributions to river flow from glacier melt, snow melt, rainfall and baseflow will affect the conservation and management of water resources in the region. http://www.grida.no/resources/6680

Farming in the Himalayas

logistical difficulties in accessing external markets, and poor infrastructure. This highlights the need to find ways of ensuring mountain food security. Women play an important role in food production in the HKH region and have different vulnerabilities to men; they face more social, economic and political barriers, which limit their adaptive capacity. As a consequence, much of HICAP research targeted agriculture and farming practices in the region, with a focus primarily on the adaptive capacity of farmers (particularly women) to climate change and other factors. Much of this work is now published in books, reports and papers, including the Oxford University Press book, Climate Change and the Future of Himalayan Farming. The book analyses farmer’s

HICAP has adopted a very effective multidisciplinary approach to adaptation research, generating holistic knowledge with greater utility for policymakers and practitioners on the ground. One issue which is intrinsically connected to climatic and rainfall variability, as well as the reduction of ecosystem services, is food security. Mountain people in the HKH region are one of the poorest populations in the world and HICAP research has shown that climate change is likely to exacerbate food insecurity in the region – more so than in other areas due to the high dependence on local agricultural productivity and depleted natural resources, vulnerable supply lines and the

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