Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 4 · Physical and socio-economic environment

RCP2.6

RCP4.5

RCP8.5

DJF

M-CC=2.85°C

M-CC=3.91°C

M-CC=7.26°C

MAM

M-CC=2.33°C

M-CC=5.39°C

M-CC=2.99°C

JJA

M-CC=3.69°C

M-CC=1.32°C

M-CC=1.99°C

SON

M-CC=1.96 °C

M-CC=3.11 °C

M-CC=5.38 °C

Change in temperature, °C

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Figure 4.3 Projected change in seasonal temperature across the Barents and Scandinavian region using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM driven by the global MPI-ESM-LR Earth System Model under three emission scenarios. RCP2.6 (left), RCP4.5 (middle) and RCP8.5 (right) for the period 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. The dark and light blue lines indicate the northern extent of an ice-free sea for at least 20% of the time in the future and historical period, respectively. The biggest temperature changes occur between the two lines, i.e. where the sea ice is retreating regularly. Numbers at the lower right of each plot give the mean climate change signal over the domain shown (Dobler et al., 2016).

have also examined the magnitude of day-to-day variation and the persistence (one-day auto-correlation) of the temperature, and found some support for reduced day-to-day variation in temperature in a warmer world, but little change in persistence in terms of day-to-day autocorrelation (Benestad et al., 2016).

exchange between surface and the atmosphere, and near- surface processes. For instance, Woods and Caballero (2016) suggested that an increase in intense moisture injections across 70°N may explain a substantial fraction of the trends in winter temperature and sea ice over the past two decades.Recent studies