Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 2 · Status of the natural and human environments

subject to the same globalization and urbanization pressures felt in many other areas of the world. Local employment has for many years been replaced by high technology solutions in all resource sectors covered by this assessment, something that may itself be contributing to increased urbanization, as reductions in the need for labor in rural areas may be driving youth to seek employment elsewhere. These changes in historical habitation and employment patterns result in many new challenges: for instance, a current trend is that of absent owners, who may retain ownership of the family property but no longer live in the area and may now use this mainly for recreation, for example as a summer cabin (e.g. Stjernström et al., 2013). Such changes imply shifts in who may be considered ‘the locals’, as land owners may increasingly live and work away from their areas of origin or family property.This also results in challenges for increasingly sparsely populated municipalities with regard to being able to assess resource use proposals such as mining within a strict environmental and social framework but with limited staff, and in maintaining services under decreasing local tax revenues. As the demographic shift has resulted in aging populations in many areas and related considerations around service maintenance and welfare state functions, particular challenges are thus being created for local government, which plays a significant role in the Nordic countries in relation to both local use and service provision. Local government responses to external developments may be increasingly shaped by perceptions of potential local employment, extent of local tax revenue, and related conflict among land-use sectors. The fact that the level of resource use has remained the same or increased while employment in natural resource- based sectors has fallen, also poses questions for how states might maintain a balanced economy with low unemployment rates while attempting to develop sustainable hydrocarbon use and address climate change, among other issues. Taken together, the developments reported here demonstrate the importance of understanding historical patterns of resource exploitation and land use, the persistence of these trends into the present, and the relationship between technological and economic change and governance structures. This in turn demands a multi-level analysis of economic sectors and governance structures beyond the national level, placing the legislative and policy framework within historical as well as contemporary contexts in order to fully understand the conditions within which resource governance takes place, also under future change and potentially increased globalization. Because this chapter and the report as a whole focus on natural systems and environment-based industries, reference is brief to the complex decision-making systems and interests at the international, EU, national, regional and local level that are in a broader sense relevant to adaptation. For this, literature on the state system, governance and relation to the EU for each geographic area or case exists and is relevant.National literature on the issues addressed in this report (in national languages as well as more broadly) is substantial, and rather than attempting to identify specific gaps in knowledge it is more important to note that a chapter such as this on the whole of the Barents area can provide only a snapshot of the highly varied and complex nature of this region.

that measures underway will drive an increase in the volume of fish farmed from 16,300 in 2012 to 98,900 by 2025 (a six- fold increase). However, aquaculture in northwestern Russia may be significantly affected, positively or negatively, by trade sanctions against the EU andNorway introduced by the Russian Federation in 2014. 2.4 Summary and conclusions A northern branch of the Gulf Stream (the Atlantic Current) makes the entire Barents area far warmer than other areas at the same latitude. Nevertheless, part of the region still possesses glaciers, permafrost and environmental features typical of Arctic areas.This region is also warming faster than the global average and climate change impacts on flora and fauna of the region are already notable: growth seasons are shifting and extending; primary production in terrestrial and marine areas is changing; many commercial fish stocks are larger than they have been for decades; and ice-associated invertebrates, fish, birds and mammals are facing major challenges. Freshwaters and wetlands occur throughout the Barents area and these ecosystem-types contain a multitude of habitats and species and provide a wide range of key ecological services, which support important Ecosystem Services (see also Box 2.2). These include, for example, maintaining permafrost (in northern parts of the region), regulating and filtering water, and storing vast amounts of greenhouse gases, which is critical for global biodiversity. Peatlands in the permafrost zone are an important reservoir of soil organic carbon, especially in extensive permafrost areas where the peat is relatively thick. A damaged peat layer could result in irreversible changes, transforming a carbon-sink ecosystem into a carbon-emitting system, either directly through the release of greenhouse gases (especially methane) or through hydrological flows subsequently becoming a source of emissions. The Barents area is less species-rich than areas further south, although some of the species are unique to the region. Rare species are important for the long-term maintenance of ecosystem function, supporting sustainable use of the area and helping to maintain biodiversity. Globalization and growth in the volume of trade and tourism has provided some species with a solution for how to by-pass natural barriers such as oceans, mountains and rivers. Together with ongoing climate change, expressed as a longer growing season and higher temperatures (in air and water), species are able to establish and thrive in new areas. Invasive alien species are currently considered one of the major threats to native biodiversity and studies on invasive species are underway in all countries within the Barents area. Socio-economically and politically, the Barents Region is a highly developed area that has relatively little in common with other Arctic areas in terms of development trajectories and overall societal integration. It is economically and socially diverse with limited risk of inter-state conflict that could affect regional security (e.g. Byers, 2013). Large variability exists within the Barents area, especially between the Fennoscandian countries and Russia. Internal variability also exists within in each country and sub-region, especially between the growing urban centers and de-populating rural areas. Areas are thus