Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 10 · Synthesis

large differences between communities and countries in the Barents area, the social processes involved in adaptation share elements that allow for some generalization. This section examines the key dimensions of adaptation processes, practices and actions. 10.3.1 Adaptation as a social process Adaptation as a social process involves responses to change in a wide range of conditions, including climatic, environmental, socio-economic, and political conditions, and where responses are shaped by policy, culture and socio-economic factors.This understanding of adaptation is reflected in IPCC’s definition: “ The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human interventionmay facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects ” (IPCC, 2014). While earlier framings of adaptation tended to focus on technical responses to specific climate change impacts, adaptation approached as a social process shifts attention towards the social actors and institutions that generate adaptation practices and actions, including their embedded knowledge, values, power and resources. Adaptation processes are embedded in specific social contexts where participating actors have different means to respond to change and often also divergent preferences for the outcome of change. It is therefore important to pay attention to the political dimensions of adaptation processes. Done in ways that build trust and social capital, the processes leading to the development and implementation of adaptation actions can contribute to building adaptive capacity (Chapter 9). Measuring andprojecting change have always been a conundrum for scientists and decision-makers, and the difficulties involved in projecting change renders adaptation measures geared towards future change riddled with uncertainty. It is often easier to gather support for adaptation to changes that are projected to occur in the near future; a function of political cycles and the difficulties and uncertainties involved in planning for long- term futures (Chapter 9). Developing long-term adaptation strategies is challenging and may be at odds with the current adaptation practices, which are often embedded in everyday practices, routines and responsibilities. Nevertheless, given the magnitude of expected climate change and the uncertainties regarding social changes that can affect sustainable development in the region, adaptation planning does need to address future challenges.One approach is to plan for building generic capacity to enable and facilitate adaptation processes both in the present and in the near- and long-term future. The chapters in this report point to a number of interlinked dimensions that are important for understanding adaptation processes and ultimately have a role in securing adaptive capacity. Based on the review of chapters and of the current barriers, three dimensions are highlighted here: processes for learning, holistic understanding, and conflict resolution. Adaptive capacity is in itself a major research topic that is also interlinked with ideas from resilience research (Chapter 8), and the intention of the considerations presented here is to provide a basis for discussing future directions.

current and future cumulative impacts visible for planners and decision-makers remain a challenge, and methods that aim to integrate both ecological and socio-economic drivers need to be further developed (Chapters 6 and 7). Access to relevant knowledge can affect the perceived need to adapt. Such perceptions vary widely and can create tensions in decisions about resource allocation.An observed lack of interest in climate change adaptation in some primary sectors and communities has been linked to perceptions of high adaptive capacity that are often grounded in the fact that these sectors and communities have always been able to adapt to high natural variability in weather and resource base in the past and so the assumption is that they will continue to do so (Dannevig and Hovelsrud, 2016; see also Chapter 3).This further underscores the importance of access to salient, co-produced and up-to date knowledge about likely future trends. Producing knowledge about climate change and its impacts requires financial and human resources. Much of the climate- related information is produced as part of national or international efforts, but increasingly also links to subnational adaptation and policy processes within the different countries of the Barents area. It may also be relevant to create a common knowledge base across the Barents area, as discussed in the example of the BEAC Working Group on Environment (Chapter 3). At the same time, adaptation to climate change is a context-dependent endeavor and its impacts need to be assessed in relation to other challenges such as those concerning demographic patterns, employment opportunities and access to resources. In spite of the increasing amount of available information, many communities have called for specific information to help them identify key vulnerabilities and appropriate adaptive measures. These include regional impact maps, cost-benefit analyses of adaptation options and statistical data for assessing implementation progress and making comparisons between sub-regions (Chapter 3). The tools and analytical frameworks that are currently available to local or sectorial decision-makers who need to integrate information about all relevant drivers and impacts of change are insufficient and new approaches needed (Chapter 9). One approach that could be part of a growing toolbox is the use of explorative scenarios (see Chapter 5 and Section 10.4).Another is to develop resilience indicators. In addition to serving as direct policy tools, the process of developing indicators can also function as a learning process (Chapter 8). Developing adaptation options requires attention to four interlinked dimensions: current adaptation strategies, factors that activate the adaptation processes, barriers and limits to adaptation, and governing tools (Chapter 9). 10.3 What processes are needed to support future adaptation? Adaptation takes many different forms in a region as diverse as the Barents area. In practice, adaptive measures are often triggered by observations of real world events, engaged officials, and contact with researchers (Dannevig et al., 2013 and Chapter 9). But to ensure that adaptation becomes more proactive and adaption efforts more systematic, there is also a need to focus on adaptation as a long-term process. Despite