Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 10 · Synthesis

10.2.1 Social context The capacity to adapt to change in the Fennoscandian part of the Barents area appears to be higher than in many other parts of the Arctic, due to its well-educated work force, more developed infrastructure and better integration of the population into social security systems.The RussianArctic has experienced general challenges due to the economic downturn of the 1990s and the present structure of the economy and governance systems (Chapter 2). However, a high adaptive capacity does not automatically translate into adaptation actions (see Chapter 9). The societal barriers to adaptation in the Barents area can broadly be classed under the inter- connected themes of demography and economic diversity, conflicting interests, decision-making authority and capacity, and lack of access to salient and relevant knowledge. 10.2.1.1 Demography and economic diversity The Barents area is one of the most densely populated regions of the Arctic, and home to a number of indigenous peoples (Chapters 2 and 7). Population trends within the region vary greatly within an overall pattern of urbanization.While rural communities lose population through lack of higher education and employment opportunities,especially for youth andwomen, cities that serve as hubs for economic activities have grown. Examples include Umeå, Oulu, Bodø, and Tromsø (Heleniak, 2014). Trends in Russia are somewhat different and are partly linked to the decline in government subsidies in the 1990s. In contrast to Fennoscandia, large cities such as Murmansk and Archangelsk have declining populations. Lack of opportunity for the young in obtaining higher education and relevant employment in rural areas can be considered a barrier to adaptation because out-migration strains municipal revenue and contributes to a skewed age composition inways that affect social and human capital.The recent wave of immigrants and refugees from theMiddle East,Asia andAfrica indicates that the Barents area is subject to global demographic trends in ways that have already had consequences for the economy,government expenditure, social life and the demographic structure of some rural areas. Long-term consequences may be both positive and negative depending on how well immigrants can be integrated (Chapters 2 and 5). While extractive industries and tourism offer employment opportunities, these are mostly temporary positions and only partly filled by local labor supply. Temporary residents usually relate to the local social and natural environment in a different way to permanent residents and potentially have less interest in long-term community objectives, unless these are directly related to their employment prospects (Chapter 5). The current economic focus on export from primary production in forestry, fisheries, mining, agriculture and the hydrocarbon industry means the region is highly vulnerable to global market volatilities, and the lack of diversity in local economic structures makes many communities sensitive to change (Chapters 5, 6, 7 and 9). Because of the link to employment and the local tax base, this sensitivity can serve as a barrier to adaptation.The current push for diversification, such as government investments in tourism and in deriving new types of products from forestry and agriculture, is relevant

for ensuring employment opportunities that can provide a local tax base that is necessary for adaptation actions.However, such investments may also lead to conflicts of interest. 10.2.1.2 Conflicting interests The Barents area is one of the most industrially developed regions of the Arctic, with relatively intensive use of both land and marine areas. It also includes major areas designated as national parks or under other forms of nature protection. In recent years, land use has become even more intensive with new activities, such as wind farms and increased mining and hydrocarbon extraction. These often compete for the same space as has traditionally been used for reindeer herding, farming, forestry and fisheries (Chapter 6, 7 and 9; see Chapter 7 for further details concerning conflicting interests that affect indigenous peoples). The ongoing replacement of a local small-scale work force by large machinery and mobile entrepreneur units can also affect acceptability and legitimacy among local people. The development in forestry is one example. Community conflicts surrounding the mining industry are also increasing, where potential contributions to local social and economic development many not be enough for societal acceptance if environmental impacts are regarded as unacceptable (Chapter 6) or because of negative impacts on already fragmented pastures for reindeer herding (Chapters 7 and 9). Increased land use has major implications for adaptation in some sectors,especially for reindeer husbandry where flexibility to access different grazing land is a critical adaptation strategy

B&C Alexander / ArcticPhoto

Nenets reindeer herder sitting in front of a gas drilling derrick on the Yamal Peninsula