Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 2 · Status of the natural and human environments

Box 2.1 Ecological resilience An important aspect of biodiversity is its role in ecological resilience. In this context, resilience is defined as the capacity of an ecosystem to resist disturbance and/or recover quickly from a perturbation (Ives and Carpenter, 2007). One commonly accepted hypothesis, the ‘diversity–stability hypothesis’ (McCann, 2000), states that higher species diversity within biological communities buffers the risk of ecological collapse. This does not necessarily mean that the diversity is driving the relationship. Rather, as a consequence of being diverse, communities contain important ecological mechanisms that provide resilience. One explanation for this is that in a species-rich ecosystem, niche-partitioning will be high leading to different responses (to environmental fluctuations,for example),with some species performing better than others (Ives and Carpenter, 2007). In addition, species- rich systems may also have more ‘functional redundancy’, meaning that if one species disappears, another will take its place providing the same or similar ecosystem functions and thereby providing stability (Walker, 1982). Previous studies Box 2.2 Ecosystem services Ecosystem services link ecosystems with society. They were described in detail in the Millennium EcosystemAssessment (2003). Arctic ecosystems provide many unique services, such as the charismatic wildlife populations so important for tourism, and regulating services linked with snow, water cycling, phenology and culture of the high latitudes. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity Nordic study synthesized available knowledge on the socio-economic significance of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Nordic countries (Kettunen et al., 2012), with the aim of making nature’s values visible and helping bring them into decision-making. Findings include the importance of Nordic ‘specialties’such as wood and other forest-based services such as berries,mushrooms and game, reindeer herding, recreation and tourism, and bio-innovations related to genetic diversity or for bio-economy.The report also noted the important role of regulating services such as carbon storage and sequestration, and water purification. Forest-related services are particularly important in Finland and Sweden, and fish/fishery-related services in Iceland and Norway. The report concluded that the Nordic countries are well placed in terms of economic resources to act as pioneers in promoting a green economy based on the sustainable use of ecosystem services. Ecosystems are changing and as a consequence so are ecosystem services. Many key ecosystem services are influenced by climate change, emphasizing the need for adaptation action (Forsius et al., 2013; Fu et al., 2013). Jansson et al. (2015) examined the potential for changes in ecosystem services in the European north arising fromclimate change as well as societal and economic changes.They found (very) likely increases in wood production, summer outdoor recreation and species richness, and likely decreases in winter outdoor recreation and native Arctic species.The latter are of

have mostly focused on the number of species (α-diversity) in an area. However, a recent study by Mellin et al. (2014), looking at species turnover (β-diversity), demonstrated the potential to determine whether higher species diversity may buffer the risk of ecological collapse over time at the landscape level. As already mentioned, the Arctic is less species-rich than areas further south. Some of the species are unique to the region while others are not, and some are common while others are rare. Conserving all species is very costly, in every respect, particularly rare species. However, conservation of rare species offers more than taxonomic, aesthetic, cultural, or ethical value andmust be a priority alongside common species when planning for the long-termmaintenance of ecosystem function (Mouillot et al., 2013). Loss of response diversity may increase the vulnerability of specific functional groups, or even cause the loss of entire groups.This may in turn lead to social and economic vulnerability, to changes in nature’s ability to supply essential ecosystem services, and ultimately to degraded socio-ecological systems (Elmqvist et al., 2003). particular value as typical Nordic hunting species as well as having cultural and educational value. Many other changes are uncertain due to unknowns in species interactions, changes in land-use and future tourism behavior.The overall societal consequences of the ‘likely’ changes include more forest harvest and economic revenue, more intense forestry practices, more fragmented forests and a loss of biodiversity; longer summer (and shorter winter) tourist seasons resulting in more (and fewer) tourists; and potentially more goods and services as new species move into the region but a lower supply of traditional services and a loss of cultural and educational values.The projected changes in ecosystems and their services are likely to occur gradually, although rapidly emerging surprises associated with state changes are almost inevitable (Lindenmayer et al., 2010). Species distributions and vegetation composition are unlikely to be in equilibrium with climate at the end of the 21st century (Svenning and Sandel, 2013).The importance (and often unknown impacts) of ecosystems and ecosystem services on broader cultural and landscape values, indirect employment impacts, and human health and well-being are increasingly important issues that are not well covered (Kettunen et al., 2012). Communities, values, health and well-being are thus linked to climate and ecosystem change, but are also changing as a result of other drivers in the region. Many key ecosystem services are influenced by the integrated impacts of climate change and other drivers, and this emphasizes the need for adaptation action. Remote sensing methodologies provide increasing possibilities for real-time monitoring and assessment of ecosystem services and changes in biodiversity.The vulnerability of ecosystem services in the Arctic to the developing bio-economy and to the increasing use of natural resources requires further investigation.

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