Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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10. Synthesis

Coordinating lead authors : Annika E. Nilsson, Grete K. Hovelsrud Lead author: Marianne Karlsson Contributing author: Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola

10.1 Introduction Adaptation is a normal part of everyday life as individuals, communities, corporate actors, and entire societies adjust their activities in relation to observed and anticipated changes. However, the unprecedented rate of climate change in the Arctic and globally has made adaptation a major political priority. Furthermore, a new context involving the complex interactions of rapid social and environmental change (at scales ranging from global to local) has made it necessary to assess and support the capacity for adaptation in ways that go beyond business-as-usual.This is driving a need for strategies that can support proactive measures and build preparedness for further changes. Chapters 1 to 9 of this report provide up-to-date reviews of a wide range of challenges and multiple and interacting changes currently taking place within the Barents area, and of ongoing adaptation activities. Based on a synthesis of this knowledge base, the present chapter places adaptation in the context of broader policy goals related to sustainable Key messages • • Adaptation needs to be considered as part of a long- term proactive process that encourages learning, holistic thinking and conflict resolution . Current adaptation efforts are largely reactive to current conditions and immediate threats, and many actors lack knowledge and insight about future trends,and sometime also access to salient information that is credible in their particular context.Because adaptation is shaped by cumulative and interacting impacts fromclimate change, globalization, demography, and market conditions, there is a need for holistic thinking that includes insights from both traditional knowledge and science.Moreover, proactive adaptation processes need mechanisms for identifying goal conflicts and ways to develop trust that make it possible to address potential conflicts. • • There is a need to develop analytical frameworks and practical tools that can support analysis of adaptive capacity and resilience by communities and sectors. Because of the complexity, pace and scope of changes facing the Barents area, adaptation processes must go beyond current practices.There is also a need to monitor and assess how today’s adaptation actions and decisions may affect the capacity to adapt in the future. Current indicators require further development to meet this need. • • Scenarios provide a tool for examining the robustness of adaptation options in the face of different potential futures. Social changes that affect adaptation processes are

development and aims to highlight social processes that need strengthening to support long-term adaptation action to multiple and interacting changes. The basic premise is that adaptation strategies need to be an integral part of planning and policy-making, and that rapid and interacting societal and environmental changes require close attention to the social context within which adaptation takes place. Casting adaptation as a process means addressing adaptation needs and strategies across different societal groups and scales. While adaptation takes place locally – where the changes manifest – the regional, national and international scales shape the configuration and success of the adaptive measures (Chapter 9).There is also a need to place adaptation in the broader context of resilience, or general capacities to deal with change and uncertainty (Chapter 8), and within the context of the rich, varied and valuable knowledge held by indigenous peoples (Chapter 7). In the light of new challenges, it is necessary to discuss how planning and decision-making can be undertaken in ways that strive for shared understanding between actors while respecting conflicting priorities. • • Adaptation needs to be analyzed in a multilevel governance perspective that includes attention to allocation of decision-making power. While impacts of cumulative change manifest locally and it is the local communities, municipalities and sectors that usually adapt, responses needed often span different sectors and levels of governance. Current adaptation efforts often meet barriers, such as unclear responsibilities and insufficient frameworks, that limit implementation of needed efforts. often difficult to forecast. Moreover, while knowledge about long-term trends appears robust, short-term volatility (e.g. market prices) and unforeseen events can affect adaptation processes. Exploratory scenarios can highlight uncertainties that need to be considered in decisions about adaptation and can also provide a platform for learning across different knowledge communities. • • Support for participatory processes that encourage knowledge sharing and social learning would increase the appreciation for different perspectives, a prerequisite for conflict resolution. Research has moved from studying adaptation as technical responses, to adaptation as social processes. This creates a demand for attention to priorities regarding society’s future directions as well as to how existing power relations affect who has a say in how a desirable future could look.