Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

219

9 . Adaptation options

Coordinating lead authors : Grete K. Hovelsrud, Helene Amundsen Lead authors: Halvor Dannevig, E. Carina H. Keskitalo, Elena Nikitina, Monica Tennberg Contributing authors: Robert Corell, Marianne Karlsson, Sari Kauppi, Nancy Maynard, Ilona Mettiäinen, Ilari Nikula, Nina Poussenkova, Camilla Risvoll, Stine Rybråten, Päivi Soppela, Minna Turunen, Vilena Valeeva

9.1 Introduction This chapter outlines the potential adaptation options available for responding to the cumulative and interacting changes ongoing within the Barents area.The analyses and assessments are based on a wide range of information types from the countries, sectors, and communities making up the Barents area. The analyses include a focus on actions and strategies, barriers and limits, challenges and opportunities, and the processes and motivations that play a role in adaptation. Early adaptation studies tended to focus on traditional small-scale primary industries (e.g. Tyler et al., 2007; Keskitalo, 2008), with adaptation responses driven largely by changes affecting production (i.e. economic) conditions (as highlighted in studies focusing on multiple stresses, see for example O’Brien and Leichenko, 2003). However, new challenges are now emerging from the unprecedented climatic and societal changes taking place,and these are likely to require a newway of thinking about adaptation, especially given the speed and magnitude of these changes (Smit and Pilisofova, 2003; Smit and Wandel, 2006). In simple terms, climate perturbations interact with the socio- economic challenges to which society responds.Climate change impacts may also exacerbate existing challenges in society. Adaptation to current and future changes and perturbations must be seen in connection with past responses to weather and climate, as well as local context and national governance. Adaptationmeasures fall into two broad categories: (1) reactive or autonomous measures (also denoted as coping strategies), applied in response to something that has actually occurred (such as an extreme weather event); and (2) proactive or planned measures, which are used to reduce negative impacts or take advantage of positive impacts, or are anticipated measures for addressing future change (Fankhauser et al., 1999; IPCC, 2007). Globally,most adaptationmeasures are reactive or autonomous (Berrang-Ford et al., 2011). To date, autonomous adaptations have been documented in fisheries, agriculture, forestry, tourism and reindeer herding, whereas, planned adaptation in the Barents Region is mainly documented in governmental sectors.While climate sensitive primary industries are subject to changes in resource availability, climate related natural hazards are a major concern for local governments (Hovelsrud et al., 2010a). Adaptation processes take place through multiple actors, at multiple scales and within and between societal scales, and among actors/ stakeholders at each of these scales and may therefore be seen as a governance issue. Chapter 2 provides an overview of stakeholders in the Barents area at multiple scales. Adaptation governance in practice means the application of a range of actions,measures, strategies, plans and programs.This list signifies an increase in formality, from adaptation actions to adaptation programs.

Key messages • • Adaptation to cumulative and interacting changes is taking place at various societal scales by actors, sectors, and local governments and takes different forms depending on a number of factors such as institutional capacity,access toknowledge and tohumanandeconomic resources. Such adaptation takes place with or without national guidelines. Adaptation is either a reactive or a proactive (planned) response to combined effects of change in biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Climate change is not the only or most salient driver of change in the region; it interacts with socio-economic, political and cultural changes and provides both opportunities and challenges for people (indigenous and non-indigenous) living and operating in the Barents area.Adaptation emerges as a process that interacts with society at large. • • Adaptation in practice is ahead of national developments and guidelines . In the primary industries adaptation is predominantly reactive and adaptation by local governments is predominantly proactive, such as spatial planning, regional and local climate strategies and programs, avalanche protection, and adjusting location of buildings to account for sea-level rise. • • Adaptation takes multiple forms depending on the nature of cumulative and interactive effects in societal and environmental conditions. These range from engineering and technical solutions to changing societal structures, for instance infrastructural improvements, economic mechanisms, new knowledge, innovation and entrepreneurship, changed or new institutional structures, and production practices and routines. In most cases a broad range of strategies are needed to adapt. This is because the combined effects of climatic and non-climatic drivers are complex, interactive and cumulative. • • Four dimensions constitute adaptation options – current adaptation strategies, processes that activate adaptation, barriers and limits to adaptation, and adaptation governance. Attention to future trends along these dimensions is critical for developing further adaptation actions. Attention to the complex relationships between these dimensions increases the likelihood of developing relevant and feasible adaptation options. • • Several societal trends will require adaptation in the Barents area. The most significant include urbanization, unbalanced outmigration by gender from the rural areas, consequences of climate change for primary industries, industrial activities (including shipping), public sector responsibilities (floods, health), and infrastructure.