Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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8. A resilience approach to adaptation actions

Co-ordinating lead authors : Marcus Carson, Martin Sommerkorn Contributing authors: Rasmus Kløcker Larsen, Rebecca Lawrence, Tero Mustonen, Claudia Strambo, Tatiana Vlasova, Sylvia Zhang

insight on a global scale argues that “ in almost every domain of human life, change is accelerating...it is not just that change is fast, it is getting faster and faster ” (Chambers and Conway, 1991).As a result, these authors argued that,“ future conditions become harder and harder to predict ”. Even given the major strides made in scientific methodology and knowledge over the quarter century since their influential discussion paper (Chambers and Conway,1991),there have beenmany surprises. In the Arctic region, fisheries have collapsed (Hamilton, 2007), local food sources have become more insecure (Schreiber, 2002; Nilsson and Evengård, 2013), and outmigration threatens the existence of once-thriving communities (Huskey et al., 2004; Howe, 2009; Martin, 2009). Noting the rapid pace of change in the Arctic has become a standard feature of discussions about the Arctic, but the reality is also that the pace of change is itself uneven as a function of diverse causal forces, non-linear processes and changing feedbacks. Caution about relying on predictions – or making them – is also common among scientists. Describing a recent effort to assess how ecosystemservices in the Barents areamight be impacted by climatic andother important drivers of change,one teamof highly accomplished scientists noted that:“ forecasts of ecosystem services are hampered by uncertainty about drivers, unknown responses to climate and ecosystem change, stochasticity and nonlinearities in interactions among species,ecosystemcomponents,and ecosystems... Methods to synthesize information and provide predictions relevant to society at regional scales are still largely lacking ” (Jansson et al., 2015). While these limitations did not (and should not) lead scientists to abandon their efforts to better understand the interactions that carry these change processes forward, they constrain the ability to project accurately into the future. These observations should not be interpreted as an argument that preparation for potentially disruptive change is not critically important. Some of the drivers and elements of change can be anticipated with a high level of confidence, as can some sources of social or ecosystem vulnerability.Many of the predictions of broader changes arising from climate change, such as temperature increase, sea-level rise, or an increase in the frequency and magnitude of severe weather events are highly robust (see Chapter 4).Yet each of these expected impacts will also entail social responses that may also have regional and local consequences, and which are less foreseeable.What is very clear from the insights highlighted above and the preceding chapters of this report is that while it is possible to discern important trends among key biophysical and social drivers, the major uncertainties that remain are even further magnified when the uncertainties are considered together. This poses a crucial question for communities and regions preparing to take adaptation action: how does one prepare to respond effectively to change under conditions characterized by árvitmeahttun , where the precise nature and pace of those changes is neither known nor knowable in advance?

8.1 Introduction: Árvitmeahttun - (un)predictability in the Arctic The future inwhich adaptation actions will be pursued is likely to bepepperedwithsurprises–developments that arenot anticipated becausewe could not imagine how they could take place,or could not predict how people would respond to developments that preceded them. Indigenous languages of the Arctic have their own terms for this condition, because unpredictability has been a part of the reality Arctic indigenous communities have had to navigate. In the North Sámi language, árvitmeahttun translates to English as‘unexpected’or‘unpredictable’.The concept reflects Sámi understandings of the world as characterized by emergence andmanifestation.Rooted formillennia in sub-Arctic ecosystems and their traditional occupancies, indigenous peoples develop specific concepts for phenomena that are important parts of their reality. It is not clear how the‘new’Arctic will be, but it will include árvitmeahttun – the unexpected. Such insights are not limited to the Arctic; the unexpected is part of the broader social and ecological reality. A related Key messages • • A resilience approach to adaptation actions emphasizes building and strengthening the underlying capacity to respond effectively to change. It offers both a pathway to prepare for surprises and flexibility to respond to developments as they unfold. Such lines of action are indicated because accurate prediction of important, even defining, developments in the region remains a significant challenge. • • Resilience can be assessed and enhanced through attention to specific ‘ingredients’ that encompass both social and ecological characteristics, and which contribute to overall resilience in specific ways. These ingredients include: assuming change, diversity, knowledge and capacity for ongoing learning, capacity for self- organization, and sustainable livelihoods. Each of these speaks to distinct qualities that can facilitate effective adaptation to disturbances or support transformational change where desired. • • This chapter develops a resilience indicators framework and applies it to five cases fromwithin the Barents area, which entail livelihoods closely integrated with nature. This provides a test for resilience indicators and suggests ways for developing indicators in other settings, including their utility for strengthening resilience. Resilience indicators support awareness, planning, prioritization and assessment of adaptation actions.