Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

investigating potential development projects within the vicinity of indigenous peoples’ communities and grazing lands. The results reported here have contributed to the development of the GLOBIO3 model for Arctic conditions and show the need for further improvements in order to represent the specific characteristics of important Arctic socio-ecological systems such as reindeer herding. The preliminary results and maps were presented for dialogue with Sámi reindeer herders to test the quality and relevance of the model calculations in view of their traditional and local knowledge. It was emphasized in the dialogue that the maps are potentially useful tools if they are supplemented with interpretations based on traditional and local knowledge. An important lesson gained from this dialogue is that the biodiversity loss illustrated in red on the maps must be interpreted with caution. While red is clearly a warning that planned developments may be detrimental to biodiversity in these grazing areas, it does not mean the affected areas should be considered completely lost because they could still be important for migration and grazing at certain times. Knowledge of the cumulative impacts and potential future consequences of climate and socio-economic drivers achieved through modeling, and improved by traditional and local knowledge gained through dialogue with the indigenous peoples affected, may provide a powerful tool to assist local and regional decision-makers in planning future developments and advancing adaptation strategies. GLOBIO3 provides a mechanism for indigenous societies to plan for future change. Success depends on a full engagement and consultation with local rights holders and use of their traditional knowledge in discussions about future possible consequences. Figure 7.7 demonstrates the future challenges that three reindeer herding districts in Norway are likely to face should development proceed as projected up to 2030. Lands designated as calving grounds by the state would be strongly impacted. This raises serious questions for the agricultural and land use policies in Norway because the model governing the economy of reindeer herding is based on maximizing calf production and slaughter. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that protecting grazing lands would be the most important adaptationmeasure for reindeer herders under climate change (Nymand Larsen et al., 2014). The cumulative effects of multiple drivers of change on the calving grounds and summer pastures used by reindeer herders in Norway, added to by inappropriate governance strategies is already affecting the inland pastures of Finnmark. One possibility could be to develop specially protected areas for reindeer herding, such as the protected areas developed in Laponia, Sweden (Green, 2009) and the concept of ‘territory of traditional nature use’ in Russia (Russian Federation, 2001; Kryazhkov, 2008). 7.3.2 Impact assessments The Impact Assessment (IA) process in Norway, Sweden and Finland is broadly similar in scope and aim, and input is generally open to all citizens as well as to non-governmental organizations, representative authorities and those directly affected by a proposed project. The process as currently

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Figure 7.8 Mean species abundance (MSA) across the Nenets AO in 2009 (upper). Local disturbance is centered around the city of NaryanMar, and the surrounding extensive oil fields to the north and south.The lower plot shows MSA across the Nenets AO for the future infrastructure scenario. (Wilbert van Rooij / Plansup).

report (NenetsAutonomous Okrug, 2009a,b), as well as various other reports by commercial organizations active in the region (Bambulyak et al., 2015). For the estimate of future biodiversity, it was assumed that several of the infrastructure developments mentioned in the above reports would be implemented and that new mines would be created near the planned roads and railways. As for Finnmark, the Nenets AO future scenario includes a 7°C increase in temperature. To calculate the future infrastructure and fragmentation impact, the current (2009) fragmentation lines in the Nenets AO were combined with the new fragmentation lines (i.e. new roads, terminals, railways and above ground pipelines, and the planned mineral and gravel extraction) following the same methodology as for the Finnmark study. As land in the Nenets AO is used extensively for reindeer herding and little urban and agricultural expansion is expected, the future land use impact will be similar to that of 2009. However, the prospects for hydrocarbon and mining developments are considerable, especially near the planned new roads and railway tracks. Such developments will have a significant local impact on biodiversity and traditional land use in these areas, all of which are important for reindeer herding and other traditional livelihoods (see Figure 7.8, lower plot).

7.3.1.3 First conclusions on the use of modeling tools

The GLOBIO3 model is currently the main tool for determining the cumulative impact of drivers of biodiversity loss. It provides support to planners and decision-makers