Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 7 · Indigenous peoples’ perspectives

2011

2030

MSA

1

0.05 Inland water

Figure 7.6 Mean species abundance (MSA) in Finnmark from GLOBIO3 showing the combined impacts of land use, infrastructure development, land fragmentation and climate change on current (2011) and future (2030) biodiversity (Wilbert van Rooij / Plansup).

7.3.1.2 GLOBIO 3 – Nenets AO, Russia The GLOBIO3 model was also applied to the Nenets AO to assess cumulative impacts for present (2009) and future (2030) biodiversity. The total MSA map for this region is shown in Figure 7.8 (upper plot). The okrug is a core area for Nenets reindeer herding and other traditional livelihoods. To create a picture of current and planned infrastructure development,data on land use and other pressures were obtained fromtheMODIL- NAO report (Dallman et al., 2010) and the Nenets AO 2030

Because land-use change between 2011 and 2030 is limited in Finnmark, the change in biodiversity status over this period is largely due to climate change and current plans for new infrastructure that increase land fragmentation.The additional infrastructure and fragmentation impact is caused by the planned development of new roads, a railway track,wind farms, mines, energy infrastructure, urban areas and cabins. While climate change has a limited impact across the entire Finnmark area, the impacts of infrastructure developments can be very high but are also local.

2011

FÁLÁ/KVALØY (20)

GEARRETNJÁRGA (21)

Calving grounds

FIETTAR (22)

Reindeer migration routes

MSA

1

2030

0.5

FÁLÁ/KVALØY (20)

GEARRETNJÁRGA (21)

0

Figure 7.7 Total mean species abundance (MSA) in Finnmark from GLOBIO3 under current (2011) and future (2030) conditions, overlain by seasonal reindeer migration routes, with insets showing the reindeer herding districts Fálá , Fiettar and Gearretnjárga and their calving grounds (Levi Westerveld, GRID-Arendal).

FIETTAR (22)