Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

with rapid changes in temperature in winter are expected to create the main climate challenges for reindeer herding. In winter 2013/2014, 61,000 reindeer are estimated to have died from starvation on the Yamal Peninsula alone due to severe autumn/winter rain-on-snow events (Forbes et al., 2016). In the past, herd mobility and herders’ flexibility usually decreased the effects of poor winter grazing conditions, but pasture losses and land use change have reduced this flexibility which has in turn reduced herders’ ability to adapt in the future. These climate-driven changes may be viewed from different perspectives. From the herders’ perspective, it is the changes that are already underway that are of greatest concern, while broader society is more concerned about what these changes may mean for the future. This can be illustrated by reference to the anthrax outbreak on the Yamal Peninsula in 2016. Anthrax spores, possibly from the carcasses of reindeer that had died from anthrax 75 years earlier were reactivated due to the intense heat of summer 2016. One child died, many people were hospitalized and over 2300 reindeer died. The area was quarantined and cordoned off and an intense clean- up was initiated by the Russian authorities (Gainer, 2016). For herders, this climate related-event (full investigations are still underway) was catastrophic on multiple levels – for herder health and reindeer health but also through the loss of an area for migration that was still unaffected by infrastructural development. For herders, these cumulative impacts are reducing their adaptive flexibility, a key strength of nomadic herding. For broader society, the concern is that this event is a harbinger of worse to come. Other events that appear to be climate-related are the appearance of ‘methane holes’ on the tundra (Moskvitch, 2014), which are hazardous for herders and their animals. Warmer summers have led to increased risk of fire especially in the Russian sector of the Barents area (e.g. Kharuk et al., 2012) and winter pastures for reindeer in the Nadym region have experienced intense fires this summer. A warming climate has also led to a ‘greening’ of the Arctic. On the ground, this warming has accelerated the growth of tall shrubs, treeline trees, and grasses (Bernes et al., 2015). Anecdotally, herders across the Barents area speak about the difficulty that greening poses on the ground for the movement and locating of animals (e.g. Forbes et al., 2010). A change in the vegetation will also drive a change in snow structure and snow accumulation in winter, which can restrict the use of some areas at certain periods. Such trends are expected to continue and even strengthen but are extremely hard to predict, model or prepare for. However, a recent review of over 6000 peer-reviewed articles (related to the impacts of reindeer grazing on Arctic and alpine vegetation) showed that research and management must consider local conditions, and that policy and management must work at the local scale to more fully understand the dynamics between plants, animals and humans (Bernes et al., 2015). It could also be argued (see Section 7.4) that more meaningful and comprehensive inclusion of traditional knowledge in research and management would increase understanding of this dynamic.

Air temperature, °C

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

Coastal Finnmark, Norway Inland Finnmark, Norway Yamal Nenets AO, Russia Observed (1961-1990) Modeled (2085)

-15

-20

-25

Annual

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

and opportunities with which herders adapting to a changing world must work. The powerful effect of calf body mass in summer on calf body mass at the end of winter, highlights the importance of the first growing season for the subsequent development of reindeer calves (Hendrichsen and Tyler, 2014). In the Nenets AO, Lavrinenko (2011) found rapid changes in weather events to cause change in vegetation. Future climate scenarios indicate that summer temperatures in the Barents area may increase by 2–4°C within the next 100 years, while winter temperatures may increase by 7–8°C (Benestad et al., 2016). The greatest temperature increase is projected to occur in inland Finnmark, but substantial warming is also projected for the Yamal Peninsula, which could be related to changes in sea-ice conditions. Yamal winter temperatures in the period 2070–2100 may be comparable to the inland Finnmark winter temperatures observed in 1961–1990, while inland temperatures in Finnmark, Norway by 2070–2100 may resemble those of coastal Finnmark (Nordreisa) today (Magga et al., 2011) (see Figure 7.3). This graphic indicates that future warming depends on location and that Norway will need to plan for a future climate in inland northern Norway that is similar to the coastal climate of today. More detailed scenarios for Finnmark up to 2100, show annual precipitation may increase by 5–30%, the snow season may be 1–3 months shorter, and annual maximum snow depth may increase by 5–60% (Engen-Skaugen et al., 2007). The greatest reductions in snow duration and snow depth are projected to occur in coastal areas. A comparison of reindeer herders reports and climate data for the areas investigated show temperature and precipitation conditions alone are not critical for the reindeer (Vikhamar-Schuler et al., 2013). However, combinations of these variables lead to different snow structures and it is these that will make the pastures more or less available for the reindeer. An increase in precipitation Figure 7.3Annual and seasonal mean air temperature in coastal Finnmark, Norway (Nordreisa), inland Finnmark, Norway (Karasjok) and the Yamal Nenets AO, Russia (Salekhard). Solid lines show the observed 1961–1990 mean. Dotted lines show the mean for 50 downscaled climate models for 2085 (based on Magga et al., 2011).