Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 6 · Impact analysis and consequences of change

directly. More work is needed to understand the cumulative impacts and cascading effects of the bundle of drivers affecting any given sector and to understand how these cumulative impacts will evolve over time. Applying the weighted driver importance method in a combined driver-impact- consequence analysis allows for a more balanced narrative and estimation of the cumulative regional impacts for specific sectors or sub-regions. This methodology is a tool intended to inform thinking and decision-making about the future and to informmore detailed discussion of resilience and adaptation actions (Chapter 8 and 9). Depending on the focus area (e.g. region, sector), some drivers of change are more important than others and their importance changes over time. Economic and political shifts affecting certain drivers of change are especially difficult to foresee. The impacts on a sector in one country may not be the same as those in another country, simply owing to different policies and regulations, global trade links, available infrastructure, support by or dependence on available technology, or public acceptance. Adaptation actions taken to respond to and build resilience to changes in one areamay conflict between locations, sectors, and scales. Importantly, the output of the analysis such as that for the forestry sector (Section 6.4.3) may serve as crucial input to larger resilience discussions (e.g. case studies in Section 8.6), and adaptation options (primary sectoral studies in Section 9.2). Consequences are the intersection of the scientific process (attribution of drivers to impacts to consequences) with the decision-making process (linking specific decision-making questions to issues of change in the Arctic and ultimately also to consequences) that provides the‘key’to connecting science to decision-making.As shown in Chapters 5, 8 and 9, these larger discussions of resilience and adaptation actions benefit from setting clear goals of what society or sectors want to achieve, understanding what adaptation processes entail, and involving a range of actors, sectors, and types of knowledge (see also Chapter 10 on the need for tools for analyzing the robustness of adaptation options). Interactions between drivers and their impacts and consequences are continuously changing, and feedbacks to sectors and their interactions are difficult to identify.This also means that assessing the cumulative and cascading effects must be done repeatedly to stay up to date. Further, adaptation actions require an iterative process to assess the status of drivers, impacts, and consequences as those adaptation actions take effect and as the underlying drivers of change evolve with time (see Chapter 9 for a detailed discussion about the dimensions that are involved in the adaptation processes). As discussed in Sections 8.5 and 9.4, an iterative process is necessary to bring stakeholders together in order to co-develop knowledge, and understand the particular context in which consequences and impacts occur and why they require adaptation action. It is therefore important to view this section as a tool to assess consequences and needs for adaptation, rather than an answer to which changes will happen to a sector, region or locality. This analysis is only part of a larger ongoing discussion of resilience and adaptation actions, but is a critically important part of that discussion.

economic growth in the Barents area will be well below the global average,the region will continue to use its rich natural resources, including and increasingly its forest expanse. Climate change and its impacts : Increased carbon dioxide concentrations and a warmer and wetter climate, are expected to lead to increased forest productivity in the northern parts of Europe, enabling sustainable forest management in areas where it is currently not possible. However, shorter and warmer winters will make harvesting more difficult, while increased precipitation may increase the risk of rot of timber. A warming climate might also increase the risk of forest and timber damage by pests and diseases. Winter climate may decrease seedling survival, but this can be addressed with good forest management and the selection of winter-hardy and (new) pest-resistant species. Forestry thrives on increased resources for both the timber and energy industry, and a global drive for carbon capture in forests will further promote forestry in the Barents area. Demographic shifts : As the population in the Nordic countries grows (more in the southern parts of the Barents nations, but also in the Barents Region itself), the demand for energy will increase. Technological developments and international climate change agreements will shift the energy sector away from fossil fuel use and towards biofuels. Changes and trends in environmental status and natural resources : Increasing demand for energy, particularly alternative energy sources will lead to decreased black carbon pollution, increased area of standing forest, use of forest for biofuel, and protection of forest stands for carbon capture. Cumulative effects and consequences : The first four drivers listed in Table 6.2 comprise close to 75% in terms of relative importance, and are expected to play a larger role in future developments in the Barents area, including the forestry sector. Because the majority of these drivers suggest an increased forest area in the future and highlighted issues such as carbon storage do not necessarily conflict with increased biofuel use, an overall positive change for forestry is expected with increased forest area, increased biofuel use, and increased timber availability. Increased forestry creates conflicts (in some regions) with reindeer herding and agriculture. Increased standing forest also has consequences for water retention and affects local and regional climate. Economic interests, future climate developments and national pledges along with the level of commitment to a shift towards biofuel, the speed of necessary technological development and implementation of these will determine the extent of positive changes for the forestry sector. 6.4.4 Moving forward The initial analysis shows how various drivers of change may interact, and how developments at the local, regional, and global scale and in the different sectors influence whether and how the Barents area can further develop its forests as a resource base.Near-term impacts are more likely to be affected by governance and globalization than by changes in climate. On the other hand, by 2050, climate change has the potential to be a dominant driver increasingly affecting impacts on ecosystems and the industries and people depending on these

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