Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 6 · Impact analysis and consequences of change

more logistically efficient and cheaper shipping alternatives (Stephenson et al., 2013). However, use of the Northern Sea Route for transit shipping is still expected to grow in the long term, taking over 5–10% of the Europe-Asia cargo transit shipping turnover (Tupolov, 2012). According to Melia et al. (2016), the projected loss of sea ice is likely to increase both the frequency and length of navigable periods forArctic-transit shipping.While substantial interannual variability will remain, it is likely that by the end of the century, the transit routes will be accessible for 10–12 months of the year for moderately ice-strengthened vessels (Figure 6.16). Hydrocarbon transport is an important element of destinational shipping. Previous estimates indicated that export could reach 150 million tonnes by 2030 (Bambulyak and Frantzen, 2009), resulting in a demand for around 100 different new ice- class ships (Loginovich, 2012). As of 2016, with the oil price below USD 30 per barrel, the likelihood of achieving these projections is now drastically reduced, at least in the short and medium term. The low oil price will also limit investment in infrastructure and in search and rescue. Shipping in the eastern and northern Barents Sea, however, does not depend entirely on oil and gas prices. The mineral deposits of Arctic Russia and Scandinavia (nickel, copper, iron

The increase in mineral extraction has consequences for society. Negative attitudes toward the industry are strong and community conflicts appear to be increasing (Hodge, 2014). Thorough assessments and management of societal impacts of mining are important for sustainable mining and society. Acceptability comprises diverse and conflicting dimensions; economic development may be accepted, but environmental issues are simultaneously criticized (Wessman et al., 2014). The local benefit from mining is understood but mines are not accepted at any cost. Mining companies are expected to contribute to social and economic development, especially at the local level (Söderholm et al., 2015). See Chapter 9 for a discussion of adaptation in the mineral industry. 6.3.5 Shipping and infrastructure Receding sea ice will mean shipping will be able to avoid the shallow waters of the Northern Sea Route (previously a serious limitation for shipping) and ship traffic could increase (Østreng et al., 2013).A longer open water season of up to six/ seven months would also improve the regularity of shipping. Transit carriers are still very skeptical about the potential for Arctic shipping, whereas those operating destinational carriers are more optimistic (Lassere and Pelletier, 2011).This is because transit shipping through the Arctic is challenged by

Early-century (2015-2030)

Mid-century (2045-2060)

Late-century (2075-2090)

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

Number of transits by Polar Class 6 vessels

Number of transits by open-water vessels

200 100 45 15 5 1

200 100 45 15 5 1

Figure 6.16 Fastest available September trans-Arctic routes from future climate projections. Routes for low emissions (equivalent to achieving the Paris Agreement; RCP2.6, upper row) and high emissions (business-as-usual, RCP8.5; lower row) split into three periods (early-, mid- and late-century), each containing 15 consecutive Septembers. Line weights indicate the relative number of transits using the same route. Faint dashed grey lines indicate the Exclusive Economic Zones (Melia et al., 2016).