Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 6 · Impact analysis and consequences of change

aquaculture for several reasons, including the spread of viral disease outbreaks (pancreas disease, infectious pancreatic necrosis), heart and skeletal muscle inflammation, and cardiomyopathy syndrome (Stene et al., 2014; Taranger et al., 2015).Warming is a significant driver for moving aquaculture activities towards areas with lower sea temperatures and with sufficient water flow. Northern Norway is an area with both qualities, and with relatively good infrastructure throughout the entire salmon farming value chain.The role and influence of the Arctic temperature regime for salmonid aquaculture needs more scientific study and documentation. It is clear that the northern areas of the Norwegian coastline represent an attractive area for future growth in the traditional salmon farming industry. Another option in the future development of the industry is the potential for developing the large High Seas structures for Atlantic salmon farming.These structures are supposed to be located outside the traditional coastline area and will face other challenges. 6.3.2 Tourism Tourism is considered to be one of the four main drivers of economic growth in the Nordic countries (Anon,2015).Growth in the Arctic tourist industry will continue with an increasing emphasis on large cruise vessels and land-based summer and winter tourism (Nordregio, 2011). Both winter tourism and cruise ship tourismwill be strongly affected by climate change. Over the years, access to the Arctic has increased through improved transport technologies, and as a result Arctic tourism has developed substantially both in terms of the number of tourists and of geographical and seasonal reach (Huntington, 2013). Hence, tourism is an integral part of local economies, and has become an alternative source of income for many local communities and gateway cities, enabling a positive interaction between new economic opportunities and traditional activities (e.g. Hovelsrud et al., 2011). In both Finnish and Swedish Lapland, winter tourism has been important for two or three decades (Brouder and Lundmark, 2011; Saarinen, 2014). In northern Norway, summer tourism has been the main focus but the region is increasingly expanding into winter tourism, and has also begun winter tourism research projects in order to attract winter tourists (e.g. Research Council of Norway,

summer temperature) influences may occur (Ficke et al., 2007; Cochrane et al., 2009). Future development in aquaculture may need to adapt to rising temperatures by adjusting rearing densities, feeding strategies and water supplies (e.g. Cochrane et al., 2009). The complex direct and indirect influences of climate change, and the currently limited understanding of the interactions of freshwater fish and climate,reduces predictive ability andmostly precludes quantitative estimation of climate change effects on northern fish populations (Reist et al., 2006). Studies coupling variation in fish populations to putative environmental drivers should be conducted for best assessment of future climate change effects on Arctic freshwater fishes (Reist et al., 2006). Because climate change cannot be stopped in the short term, both proactive management strategies (such as removing other stressors from freshwater systems) and practical mitigation actions will be necessary to sustain northern freshwater fisheries and aquaculture (e.g. Ficke et al., 2007). 6.3.1.6 Marine aquaculture The Norwegian marine aquaculture industry is relatively new, starting in the early 1970s on the Norwegian west coast. In the early days of the Norwegian farming of salmonids in marine waters, it was farming of rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) that generated the main volumes. After about ten years of extensive‘trial and error’among local enthusiasts,combinedwith amajor research effort,Atlantic salmon took the lead as themain type of farmedmarine salmonids.The farming of Atlantic salmon has faced technological,biological andmarket-related challenges. The positive trend in production volume has, notwithstanding, continued throughout this period (see Figure 6.11). The salmon farming industry has gradually shifted geographical focus from the south-west and central Norwegian coastline – where the main areas of production were initially located – towards the northern areas of Norway. Between 1998 and 2015 the total production of farmed fish in the three northernmost counties of Norway increased from ~27% of Norway’s total to ~40%. There are various reasons for this trend, including warmer water along the south and central west coast of Norway and vast unexploited sheltered sea areas in northern Norway. Increasing sea temperature is not favorable for salmon

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Figure 6.11 Production of farmed salmonids in Norway (Statistics Norway).

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