Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

will gradually be replaced by lean cool-water adapted percid fish, and finally by warm-water adapted cyprinid fish (Wrona et al., 2013).This would lead to changes in fisheries practice and management and in fish consumption. 6.3.1.5 Freshwater fisheries The extreme seasonality of environmental conditions has a strong influence on the hydrology and ecology of freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic (e.g. Reist et al., 2006; CAFF, 2013a,b). The Barents area is home to some of the most abundantAtlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) populations in the world, including large river systems in Norway, Russia and Finland, where the salmon stocks are supporting major recreational fisheries and related businesses (Whoriskey et al.,2000; Niemelä et al.,2004).Some of the large lake basins in the Barents area are important for local fisheries.A good example is the large Lake Inarijärvi (Finland), which supports significant recreational and commercial fisheries with an annual catch of between 150 and 180 tonnes in recent decades (Niva et al., 2015). As biodiversity forms the basis of the ecosystem services that the fish populations provide, care should be exercised in safeguarding these resources from overexploitation, habitat degradation, and introgression from farmed fish (e.g. Erkinaro et al., 2010; Schindler et al., 2010). Freshwaters are particularly vulnerable to climate change because species have limited ability to disperse as the environment changes, and water temperature and availability are highly climate-dependent (Woodward et al., 2010) (also see Section 6.2.1.1). In addition, projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are highly relevant toArctic freshwater ecosystems.The impacts of changing climate are particularly complicated for anadromous fish species, which must cope with a variety of habitats and conditions during their lifecycle (Heino et al., 2016). In a recent analysis of timing of salmon smolt migration throughout the North Atlantic, Otero et al. (2014) found that the start of migration has occurred 2.4 days earlier per decade since the 1960s, associated with changes in temperature. This change is likely to be having a profound effect on salmon growth and survival (Otero et al., 2014). In northern lakes, climate change has extended the open water period with possible positive effects on primary production and fish biomass (Reist et al., 2006), but autumn-spawning species may suffer from delayed cooling through mismatch between development and environmental phenology. Freshwater fisheries may therefore gradually shift from autumn-spawning cold-water species to spring-spawning species (e.g. Ficke et al., 2007; Heino et al., 2016). Freshwater aquaculture is a minor activity compared to the volume of marine aquaculture in the Barents area (see Section 6.3.1.6). In Finland, for example, aquaculture mainly produces fish for stocking into regulated waterbodies (Saarni et al., 2003). However, fish farming has recently increased in the Barents area, especially in Russia, although increasing aquaculture in the fragile Arctic environment may be contradictory from the perspective of environmental policy (Herzon et al., 2014). Since aquaculture concentrates on cold- water species, it is sensitive to the impacts of climate change; both positive (longer growing period) and negative (higher

In addition to the biological factors that currently have a positive effect on ocean productivity, the joint Norwegian– Russian fisheries management regime has had a significant positive influence on stock size and development. The Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Management Commission was established in 1976 to manage the joint stocks in the Barents Sea, mainly cod, haddock and capelin, but also other commercially important fish stocks. The Commission decides on the TAC and the distribution of quotas among the involved parties (Norway, Russia and third party countries). The Commission is also involved in other aspects of fisheries regulation, and since 1993 fishery control has become an almost equally important issue. In 2002, Norway and Russia agreed to establish a new tool for sustainable precautionary management; a guideline that restricted the changes in TAC to about 10% per year. The new principle for sustainable management showed an improvement compared to the joint management regime (Hønneland, 2007). It is important to emphasize that the Joint Fisheries Commission is responsible for all fish stocks in its area of jurisdiction. This co-management regime is considered to be one of the main reasons for the healthy state of fish stocks in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters. The Joint Fisheries Commission has been broadly successful in establishing and maintaining a fisheries management regime that is both ecologically and economically sound. The fishery in the Barents Sea is of significant economic importance for the parties involved. The TAC for cod alone constitutes an estimated firsthand value of more than NOK 20 billion annually. Value added activities and support industries and other derived activities are also of significant economic value. Considering the high economic value of the fishery, it is useful to examine the impacts of different scenarios of future climate change as a basis for future research. •• In the first scenario,the fisheriesmanagement and harvesting strategy chosen by the fishers is more important for the fate of the stocks than altered oceanographic conditions, even though a warmer Barents Sea is likely to increase biomass variability (Eide,2008).This scenario (i.e.management more important than climate change effects) rests on a critical precondition: that the joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission pursues the same path as that followed for the past ten years. During this period the main fish stock – the NEAtlantic cod stock has grown.The sharing of a common good is generally easier if the total to share is growing. •• If the fish stocks move eastwards into the Russian Economic Zone (REZ) – scenario two – there might be a discussion of how the model for dividing the TAC should or could be altered. There are, however economic incentives among the Russian fishers operating in the Barents Sea to take a relatively large share of their catches outside of the REZ (e.g. Nilssen, 2003). But a scenario in which the current joint fisheries management breaks down and results in severe overfishing of one or several stocks is unlikely. •• A third scenario is that higher sea temperatures may lead to instability in the biomass, which may in turn cause an unforeseen drop in the production of one or more species at lower trophic levels (see Link and Tol, 2006). It is also expected that cold-water adapted fat salmonid fish species