Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

6.3.1.2 Agriculture Under the present climate, the main limiting factor for agricultural crop yield is the short growing season (Himanen et al., 2013 see also Chapters 2 and 9). In addition, perennial crops have overwintering challenges due to icing and lack of snow cover (Rapacz et al., 2014). In the future, it is expected that winter temperatures and precipitation will increase, snow-cover duration will be shorter, and ground frost will occur less often (see Chapter 4). A warmer and longer growing season should enable the cultivation of more productive crops and cultivars of vegetables, potatoes and forages than at present (Höglind et al., 2010; Uleberg et al., 2014). However, despite the warming, because day length will stay the same, autumn day length will remain a limiting factor (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2009; Thorsen and Höglind, 2010a). Perennial leys are the basis of agricultural production in the Barents area, which means the grass varieties must be adapted to varying conditions and locations (Bjerke et al., 2015) (see Chapter 9). However, weather-driven interannual variation in the quantity and quality of grass yields will continue to lead to substantial variation in the economic output of forage-based dairy production (Kässi et al., 2015). In areas of thick snow and thin ground frost, the main reason for winter damage is low-temperature fungi (Matsumoto, 2009). Damage caused by low-temperature fungi will decrease as ice encasement, cold and ice rind may increase. Bjerke et al. (2015) predict that conditions of low snow and low soil frost combined with ground ice, which result from warming events, will become the dominant snow season type in upland areas of sub-Arctic Norway. In the lowlands the frequency will decrease (see

Chapter 4). At the same time, long warm autumns weaken winter hardening and predispose grasses to winter damage (Jørgensen et al.,2010).Warm spells during winter may increase the risk of frost damage (Kalberer et al., 2006; Höglind et al., 2010; Jørgensen et al., 2010). Thorsen and Höglind (2010b) have suggested that for most locations, the risk of frost-related injury during the hardening, winter and spring growth periods will reduce according to existing scenarios. Climate change is highly likely to result in yield increase due to the possibility for more than one harvest of crops. But as Höglind et al. (2013) pointed out, when simulating potential future yield of the grass timothy ( Phleumpratense ) under climate change, their calculations do not provide any information about whether the projected additional harvest will also be achievable in a practical sense. One consequence of higher temperatures during growing periods could be a reduction in daily plant growth (Hannukkala, 2002; Hakala et al., 2005). Hildén et al. (2012) argued that technological advancements and improved understanding should be considered to guarantee ecological and socio-economic sustainability. Overall, agriculture is important for the economic and social viability of rural areas. Comparing Finnish and Norwegian agricultural policy, Sipiläinen et al. (2014) found evidence that the stronger liberalization of agricultural policy in Finland has provided greater flexibility for farmers to respond to change (see Chapter 9 on the importance of flexibility). Farms that have diversified outside conventional agriculture have the economic and financial means to drive development in rural areas (Hansson et al., 2013).

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Figure 6.10 Integrated growth of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ), Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) and birch ( Betula spp.) under the current climate and under projected future climates in Finland. From left to right: total current growth and percentage change in total forest growth for 1991–2020, 2021–2050 and 2070–2099. The numbers on the maps refer to the Finnish Forest Centres. Kellomäki et al. (2005).