Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 6 · Impact analysis and consequences of change

Minna Turunen

A Finnish reindeer herder in northern Finland

people to influence decision-making are expected to influence herding, hunting, fishing and gathering, consumption of local foods and income from their sale (Jansson et al., 2015). These traditional and recreational activities and lifestyles are directly affected by changes in habitat quality and the range, abundance, productivity and species composition of communities. For example, hunting has been adversely affected by the decreased abundance of game birds over recent decades in the Barents area due to loss and fragmentation of habitats, and climate change (BirdLife International, 2015). Conversely, many game species that have spread or been deliberately introduced into the Barents area from the south will benefit from climate change. For example,models suggest further range expansion of moose to the north (Jansson et al., 2015). In addition to the interlinked consequences of changing environmental and socio-economic conditions, key future concerns for herding, hunting, fishing and gathering activities in the Barents area warranting attention by decision-makers and local communities include local and long-range transported pollution, which may prevent local access to high-quality habitats and decrease food quality (Herrmann et al., 2014; Holma-Suutari et al., 2014). The introduction of invasive species to the Barents area can present both a threat (via ecosystem impacts) and a gain (as a source of revenue for local people) (Britayey et al., 2010). New threats to traditional and recreational activities and lifestyles may also arise in the form of heat stress, climate sensitive infections and disease, parasites, and insect harassment due to warming (Härkönen et al., 2010; Jansson et al., 2015).

reduced ground lichens in reindeer pastures in Finland (Kumpula et al., 2014). Reduced availability of winter forage due to low lichen biomass combined with ice-locked pastures cause herds to ‘break loose’ to find forage. This has major consequences for the economics of reindeer herding through increased working hours, and the need for supplementary feeding and transportation. Challenging snow conditions have also increased reindeer losses to large carnivores (Turunen et al., 2016). Snow storms, strong winds, flooding and avalanches have dramatically impacted reindeer herding in north-west Russia (Bulgarova, 2010).Warming and longer growing seasons (see Chapter 4),mean that lichen-dominated mountain heaths will be gradually replaced by shrubs and forest vegetation (Turunen et al., 2009).The increased height and abundance of shrubs are likely to reduce visibility to the extent that it will prevent moving the herds (Forbes et al., 2010). The vegetation response to climate change varies from one region to another partly due to the interaction of many abiotic and biotic factors. The mountain birch ( Betula cordifolia ) forests have considerably reduced in several regions owing to the effect of geometrid moths (autumnal moth Epirrita autumnata and winter moth Operaphtera brumata ; see Chapter 9 on moth outbreaks in Finnmark, Norway) followed by intensive reindeer grazing. The combined effect of these two factors (inhibiting forest regeneration) has been stronger than increased forest growth due to warming (Chapin et al., 2004; Rybråten and Hovelsrud, 2010). Cumulative impacts of globalization and global resource use, climate change,large carnivores,industrialization,urbanization, pollution,institutional barriers and limited possibilities for local