Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Executive Summary

and Finland (Norway more indirectly), also subject to EU regulatory systems.Hence,many decisions affecting the Barents area are made outside the region. Furthermore, the increasing role of transnational corporations, particularly in the primary sectors, can weaken local power of decision with major local implications. At the same time, profits from industries such as those based on petroleum and minerals are often channeled out of the less diverse economies of the Barents area, affecting the financial capacity of regional and local governments. How to prepare for future change? Crucial changes with the strongest impact on nature and society in the near-term (present day to 2030) in the Barents area include: more rapid warming; a shift to seasonal ice cover and substantial reduction of sea ice cover in winter; increased frequency of natural hazards caused by the overall warming; and an intensification of trade and investment in transportation, fishery and natural resources extraction. For the near-to-mid future (2030 to 2080) a plausible picture will be: an ice-free sea all year round; a substantial increase in ocean acidification; change in ocean currents and hydrographic conditions; a substantial reduction in snow-cover season; a substantial degradation of permafrost; increasing urbanization; and increased pollution, degradation of ecosystems and irreversible loss of region- specific biodiversity. TheArctic and the regions explored as part of theAACA project are complex systems undergoing rapid environmental and societal change. It is evident that climate change is an important driver of change, but it is not the only one.Adaptation strategies should therefore always reflect a broader context than climate change alone. AACA has broken new ground by integrating knowledge from many different fields of expertise, and across regions with large cultural diversity, multiple uses and users of local resources. A key message is that adaptation is a social process and that planning needs to be cross-sectoral.Adaptation must adopt a holistic approach. Having considered environmental and socio-economic changes and their implications in the Barents area, the report outlines a number of key adaptation strategies and actions. •• Adaptation is an ongoing process and a strategy, rather than an end in itself. The complex interactions of social and environmental change make it necessary to assess and support the capacity for adaptation in ways that go beyond business-as-usual. There is a need for integrated processes and strategies, across different societal groups and scales, that can support proactive measures and build preparedness for further change. Reacting based on past experience and immediate threats will not be enough. •• It is increasingly important to recognize the significance of natural capital and ecosystem services in the context of governance and management, as well as in the context of economic decision-making and global stewardship. Sustainable management of critical ecosystems and landscapes is important for the practice of traditional and local livelihoods, but also for a range of other concerns such as water supply and flooding, and sustainable productivity in agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

fundamental qualities of people-environment systems: assuming change, fostering diversity, ongoing learning and knowledge development, capacity for self-organization, and sustainable livelihoods. Scenarios provide a tool for discussing the robustness of adaptation options in the face of potential futures. They are simplified descriptions of how the future may develop and can provide plausible information about how the climate may change based on different socio-economic forecasts. Applying participatory methods that use narratives as a communication interface can help overcome a potential ‘disconnect’ between experts and practitioners. Nesting local and regional narratives within global scenario perspectives increases the possibility for comparing prospects for mitigation, impact, adaptation, and vulnerabilities across differentmunicipalities,regions and sectors. Preparedness is essential. Some uncertainties andmany specific risks related to impacts of climate change, such as increased extreme weather events, will remain difficult to predict. For risks that are difficult or very costly to avoid, adaptation action must include discussion about what level of risk is acceptable and how much to invest in buffering capacity or other types of insurance. To this end, it is necessary to improve information sharing processes as well as potentially supporting funding measures across national, regional and local levels to support action and development. Understanding barriers and limits General adaptive capacity does not automatically translate into adaptation actions. Adaptation planning for the Barents area needs to include an understanding of the barriers and limits, and their root causes. Typical barriers in the region are related to demography, community resilience, conflicting interests, access to salient and relevant knowledge, the perceptions of uncertainty and adaptation needs, and the decision-making power and capacity. The extent of local decision-making power is a concern. This relates to the relative power between national government, economic sectors and governments at the local or regional level, corporate versus local political power, as well as to local and indigenous rights and the extent to which they are respected, not least in relation to conflicts over land use.Municipalities and local businesses face trade-offs between adaptation concerns andmore immediate needs. It is a challenge to balance different interests, which often make different value judgments about what constitutes inequality and fairness, and about the relative importance of economic benefits, biodiversity, and other desirable outcomes.The shortage of adequate funding and time for municipal employees to integrate attention to adaptation in their daily practices is a key limiting factor. Adaptive measures and responses that span different sectors are often needed, but the responsibility for developing adaptation measures is often unclear and there are major challenges in translating national goals into local contexts, and in funding adaptation at various levels.While many adaptation decisions may need to be made at the local level, the Barents area is governed by the respective states, connected to the global economy and governance structures, and in the case of Sweden