Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

is a defining factor in such change. The largest non-climatic impact on tundra hydrology is due to vegetation change, with increased shrub growth and a shift from boreal evergreen trees to deciduous vegetation (Post et al., 2009). Such a shift will lead to complex changes including changed albedo, increased warming (and thus melting), and further change in hydrology through increased evapotranspiration,and potentially increased cloudiness and precipitation (Swann et al.,2010).There are only a few (and uncertain) direct anthropogenic hydrological changes. Increased industrial development and traffic in the Arctic and more frequent and larger forest fires in Europe (Camia et al., 2008) as well as the Barents area, will result in higher black carbon emissions and other particle contamination. These exacerbate melt of snow and ice and have associated follow-on effects for hydrology and vegetation (Degteva et al., 2015; see also Chapter 4).Water diversions for mining or hydroelectric purposes and intensive or unsustainable land- or water use may also affect the hydrological balance. As discussed by Bring et al. (2016), snow-cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration is likely to increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain andmay vary over time. Streamflowwill generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Arctic freshwater ecology is strongly influenced by the duration of snow- and ice-cover (Sections 4.4.1.3 and 4.4.4), water temperature and nutrient concentrations, and inputs from the catchments and surrounding terrestrial ecosystem (Wrona et al., 2006). A warming climate will continue to reduce seasonal ice cover in Arctic rivers, lakes and ponds, which will in turn increase water temperature and both shift and increase the length of the growing season (Prowse et al., 2006). Ecosystem productivity will increase across the system, from algal growth to invertebrate emergence, to fish development (Wrona et al., 2013). Climate-induced changes will cause reductions in the populations of cold- water fishes, especially salmonids (Wrona et al., 2013), including their associated parasites which are important for overall ecosystem stability and resilience (Lafferty et al., 2008).Many warm-water fishes on the other hand will expand their current range into northern habitats (Wrona et al., 2006), taking with them their parasites (Marcogliese, 2001). Increased growth and use of freshwater bodies by fish and wildlife, but also the continued pollution and contamination, such as atmospheric deposition of nitrate (a plant nutrient) transported to the Arctic from southern sources, may increase the eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems (Prowse et al., 2006). Of perhaps even greater impact in freshwater ecosystems are not the changes taking place within the systems, but the appearance or disappearance of the systems themselves. For example, while Arctic lakes are rapidly draining and disappearing following the loss of permafrost and increased evaporation due to higher air temperatures, it is also the case that increased snow and ice melt and thawing permafrost may increase the formation of swamps and new lakes (Arctic Council, 2013 and references therein).All such changes have implications for hydrology at

to and from the region; increased import of foodstuffs as well as increased interest in locally produced foods; and increasing globalization with impacts on community connections (Larsen and Fondahl, 2014) (see also Section 4.5). Against the backdrop of this complex picture of climatic, environmental,and socio-economic change,this chapter highlights the current impacts of specific drivers of change and their interactions and points to projected key consequences relevant for future planning and adaptation actions in the Barents area. The emphasis is on regionally identifiedpriorities and thematerial draws on recent peer-reviewedpublications.The key consequences are described in three sections; the first two address impacts and consequences for the biophysical, social, and economic domains of the area (Sections 6.2 and 6.3) while the third presents a methodology for understanding the cumulative impacts and future consequences of these multiple drivers of change (Section 6.4). The analysis in this chapter represents what is known about drivers,impacts,and consequences before any adaptation actions are implemented for building resilience. Communities and nations have the ability to lessen the impacts and consequences of change through adaptation measures. Thus, this chapter provides the foundations of key consequences to inform the discussions on adaptation actions in Chapter 9 that can, in turn, design adaptation planning strategies, useful mechanisms and adaptation tools to assist the people of the Barents area to better adapt for and live in the Arctic of the future. 6.2.1 Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems There is a close coupling between human systems and natural ecosystems in theArctic (see Section 8.2.2).The terrestrial parts of the Barents area include five main ecosystem types: glacier, freshwater, open wetland, alpine and lowland tundra, and forest (Section 2.2.1).TheseArctic ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change (Legagneux et al., 2014) owing to the dependence of several key species on snow and ice and‘edge effects’(i.e. species invasions from sub-Arctic ecosystems). Arctic ecosystems are complex and interlinked by nutrient cycling between the terrestrial, freshwater, and marine components. Current understanding of Arctic ecosystems is based mostly on limited time series of single species observations. Ecosystem impacts are thus mostly based on inferences, and projecting the type and timing of consequences is inherently difficult. Groundwater levels are expected to change significantly as a result of climate-related changes, especially warming (Section 4.2.1), changes in precipitation, snowfall and the snowpack (Sections 4.2.2 and 4.4.1), declining meltwater from glaciers (Section 4.4.3), and vegetation shifts (Haldorsen and Heim, 1999). Permafrost thaw also plays an important role in hydrological change across most of the Arctic, but the Barents area has relatively little permafrost (Section 4.4.2). Soil type 6.2 Impacts on ecosystem and human health 6.2.1.1 Impacts on hydrology, freshwater ecosystems and vegetation