Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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6 . Impact analysis and consequences of change

Coordinating lead authors : Minna Turunen, Anna Degteva, Seija Tuulentie Lead authors : Anatoli Bourmistrov, Robert Corell, Edward Dunlea, Grete Hovelsrud, Timo Jouttijärvi, Sari Kauppi, Nancy Maynard, Bob van Oort, Arja Rautio, Hein Rune Skjoldal Contributing authors : Natalia Anisimova, Valery Chaschin, Dmitrii Denisov, Anastasia Emelyanova, Elena Eriksen, Jaakko Erkinaro, Jon L Fuglestad, Geir Wing Gabrielsen, Ludmila Maria Granberg, Leena Grandell, Andrei Gudkov, Ingeborg G Hallanger, Antti Hannukkala, Petri Heinimaa, Boris Ivanov, Edda Johannesen, Lis JØrgensen, Timo Jouttijärvi, Panu Juntunen, Sari Kauppi, Carina Keskitalo, Asta Kietäväinen, Juha Kiviluoma, Oleg Korneev, Kari Lehtonen, Lars Lindholt, Pavel Lyubin, Frode Nilssen, Teuvo Niva, Jon Øyvind Odland, Julia Olsen, Willy Østreng, Riku Pasonen, Stanislav Patin, Andrey Petrov, Pasi Rautio, Kimmo Silvo, Laura Sokka, Julia Tchernova, Seppo Vuori

6.1 Introduction Climatic and environmental change, globalization, geopolitical shifts, increased industrial, shipping and tourism activities, and other socio-economic, cultural and political conditions all interact to create complex and cumulative impacts in all communities: indigenous, non-indigenous, rural and urban. These impacts will have consequences that will lead both to challenges and opportunities. The viability of communities is shaped by the degree to which their response to pressures and opportunities is sustainable (e.g. Larsen and Fondahl, 2014). In turn, this is linked to institutional flexibility and to collaborative policies for reducing the impacts • • The warming and expansion of Atlantic Water that has occurred over recent decades will continue, and winter sea ice and the marginal ice zone will decrease to a small area in the northernBarents Sea. The warming climate will increase phytoplankton primary production. Ice-associated species will be negatively affected by the loss of sea ice, while open water species may benefit from the warming The cumulative impacts of human activities can have serious long-term consequences for coastal and marine ecosystems and marine-based food production from the Barents Sea. • • The consequences of climate change for human health and wellbeing are expected to increase, due to extreme and rapidly changing weather, environmental disasters, new diseases and societal changes. Indigenous peoples are especially vulnerable due to their close dependence on the environment for food, way of life, and culture. • • Communities, both rural and urban, are affected by interacting socio-economicandenvironmental changes and aredependent on sufficient humanandeconomic resources. Key messages • • The warming climate will cause many boreal species to shift northwards over the next few decades and within the Arctic some species will retreat or decrease in number. The incidence of invasive species, pests and diseases will increase. Impacts of increased anthropogenic activity and related emissions in and outside the Barents area are very likely to intensify towards 2030 and beyond.

of man-made and environmental disasters. Pelagic fisheries, for example,are reliant on international cooperation and adherence to existing agreements in order to be successful when ocean warming causes fish stocks to migrate to new waters and new fish stocks to appear. Recent institutional changes in some parts of the Barents area, such as the Finnmark Act in Norway, have led to consequences for both local communities and resource developers because the communities have gained more control and ownership over natural resources. In addition to changing environmental and climatic conditions, major societal trends in the Barents area include: increasing demographic shifts into urban centers and proportionally higher outmigration by women than men; increasing mobility, of both people and ideas within and between communities and • • The potential for new industrial livelihoods may grow due to the economic changes and better accessibility but these also face adverse impacts. Melting sea ice will lead to increased shipping and cruise tourism through to better accessibility. Winter tourism may suffer from a lack of snow. Fishing will shift north in the Barents Sea. Favorable geopolitical circumstances may have positive impacts on oil and gas resources. Alternative energy sources are expected to become increasingly important.Mining is strongly sensitive to global demand,and also vulnerable to climate change impacts. • • Depending on the geographical scale and sector, some drivers of change are more important than others and their importance changes over time. A step-by-step analysis is used to study the cumulative consequences of various drivers and impacts on forestry as an example. The consequences of multiple stressors on key economic sectors and services can be considered as risks for business-as-usual, but can also represent new economic opportunities. • • Forestry and agriculture can benefit from a longer growing season while negative impacts for traditional livelihoods such as reindeer herding may exceed benefits. Cumulative impacts from global resource demand, climate change and other drivers will threaten traditional and recreational activities and lifestyles. Shorter and warmer winters and increased pests and diseases may increase risk for agriculture and forestry.