Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 5 · Future narratives

power/ownership and to what affinity people have to the place they live. For the Torne Valley and Nordland, some global futures were seen as leading to an increasing focus on the economic value of the environment, either as a site for food production (agriculture and aquaculture), material and energy (forestry products), or as part of making a place attractive for tourists or for attracting people to settle there. The significance of environmental conditions thus ranges from serving basic human security needs to being an important base for economic development. 5.4.2.5 Technology, know-how, and culture Development of new technologies was an important feature of many of the narratives. At the Kirovsk workshop, it was rated as the most important factor. In general, new energy-related technologies (or more widespread use of existing ones) were seen as an opportunity to develop local and regional energy independence. Other technologies appeared as factors in realizing the economic value of rich local and regional natural resources (linking the theme to ecosystem services). Specifics ranged from new forms of aquaculture to energy-saving buildings and getting higher value products from forests. The focus on technology was also linked to a need for know-how and high competence among local people. In some narratives, this competence was very focused on the need of specific sectors such as the fossil-fuel sector in Nordland, whereas other narratives included attention to a more diversified set of competences. For example, for the TorneValley‘entrepreneurship’was highlighted as crucial for meeting challenges ahead.The need for knowledge and competence in the workforce also has implications for demography, for example if there are attractive jobs for people with different profiles, which is likely to affect whether women and youth stay or leave.Moreover, the need for competence can either be met by local people who have had access to relevant education or by workers coming only for short periods of time, with different implications for the social development in the local setting, as well as for cultural diversity, and sense of place.

of change. The workshop participants saw major differences in how indigenous rights are recognized and respected in the different future worlds withmake-or-break impacts on reindeer herding as an economically viable activity, due to differences in competition for land. Locally in Pajala municipality, workshop participants highlighted that it would make a large difference socially and environmentally whether the iron mine was reopened or whether the focus shifted to renewable resources where the forests were seen as a local asset. For the Murmansk region, some narratives included a diversification of the economy (as a result of lower demand and new technologies) while futures with intensified resource extraction highlighted a deterioration of the local environment.Concentration of power to companies and a demography dominated by fly-in-fly-out labor were seen as exacerbating such a development. On the basis of the workshop outcomes, global markets and their intersection with local economic structures is an area of high importance and high uncertainty for local futures. There is thus a need for further discussion about how this should be taken into account in decisions about adaptation. The intersection with power issues, including land rights, also makes it a focus area where local and indigenous voices and perspectives are needed to complement national and international discussions. 5.4.2.4 The environment and ecosystem services Environment and ecosystem services capture the emphasis on how societies depend on their physical and ecological surroundings. Again, the specifics differ between contexts and what the global future may look like. For the Murmansk region, pollution was an important theme where some narratives were seen as leading to deteriorating environmental conditions with impacts on access to clean water and health. In the workshop results, there is a strong link to issues of

Annika E. Nilsson

Kiruna City and the iron ore mine