Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

communities as people bring human capital as well as much needed municipal tax income.

Inequality : In the unequal world, the elite live in a protected paradise, where nature is unharmed and industrial pollution is unseen.Many people live in ‘normal’ areas, neither paradise nor destroyed.Minorities live next to industrial areas. Reindeer herders live in industrial areas. Herders cannot live only on reindeer herding, but need additional income to survive. Traditional knowledge and language are lost. It is a fully class- based society. 5.4.2 Recurring themes Owing to the diversity of workshop settings and because these contexts are not representative for all local settings in the region, the workshop results cannot be used as a basis for constructing overarching future narratives for the Barents area. However,many issues were raised that were relevant across the workshops. This section highlights the most prominent cross- cutting themes. 5.4.2.1 Demography Demography was a major theme at the Pajala, Kirovsk and Bodø workshops, rated as both an important and an uncertain driver of change, which means it is difficult to project what the future will entail. For the Torne Valley and the Murmansk region, with a recent history of out-migration, keeping people in the region was a major concern. Rural areas of Nordland were also thought more likely to see out-migration in some of the future global developments, while the population of Bodø, a larger town, could increase as investments and access to education and jobs become centralized. In global scenarios that emphasize slow economic growth and‘greening’ of the economy (i.e., Green Road and Inequality), this urbanization trend was not as apparent. Out-migration was also a major issue in local/regional scenarios developed in the workshops, in which extractive industries rely heavily on a fly-in-fly-out workforce. Some of the local scenarios based on global development paths with rapid climate change and/or heightened conflicts and inequity, highlight an influx of refugees and migrants from other parts of the world, potentially off-setting some of the expected out-migration. In one narrative, this was portrayed as a way to build more creative communities where the diversity of human capacities served as a resource for meeting other challenges.However, depending on world views and ideologies, it could also lead to increasing social tensions, and in some discussions (based on the Inequity and Regional Rivalry scenarios), xenophobia was part of the future. In the Regional Rivalry scenarios from the Gávnnadeapmi workshop, an outflow of people with progressive values was highlighted. Demography is thus a salient factor to consider in making decisions about adaptation actions. It is also a factor in which global developments intersect with local and regional population changes, such as the trend for increasing urbanization in the Barents area. Population changes were portrayed both as a consequence of ongoing major trends with certain built-in inertia and linked to decisions about how work is organized, to local economic structures, and to world views and ideologies. Demographic changes can have major impacts on local

5.4.2.2 Climate change and its impacts Climate change and its impacts on the environment and ecosystems was a major issue in all workshops. Climate change was identified as one of the most important drivers of change at the Pajala and Bodø workshops and the most uncertain at Kirovsk.Observations of ongoing climate and related ecosystem changes affecting livelihoods were reported in the workshops, such as the appearance of mass numbers of jelly fish getting caught in shrimp fishing equipment and replacing shrimp (Bodø), a need to move reindeer to the mountain earlier in the season (Pajala),and a need to find new slaughtering routines due to difficulties of moving reindeer on the tundra (Kirovsk).In the longer time perspective,workshop participants discussed further climate change impacts in their future narratives, regardless of global scenario. These included major changes in hydrology affecting water quality and access to water (Murmansk region), forestation of the Nordland archipelago due to a combination of climate change and lessened grazing pressure,and the appearance of new species while other species move northward. The ecosystem changes are expected to affect tourism (bird tourism in Nordland), forestry (with increased uncertainty and risk related to pest species), fisheries (major changes in the marine ecosystem including species composition), and reindeer herding (new diseases, and a need for larger grazing areas). In the Torne valley, a need to foster entrepreneurship to capture new opportunities for tourism was identified. Several local/regional future narratives included increased flood risk with an associated need for adaptionmeasures. For example, in a fossil-fueled future for Nordland, major investments would be needed for adaptation. The current economic structures of Norrbotten, theMurmansk regions, and Nordland are all linked to the extraction of natural resources that depend on global markets. As a consequence, global resource markets were seen as important and posed uncertainty about the future. The envisioned impacts on demography are especially striking, as in- or out-migration was seen as following gains or losses in job opportunities.The specifics depend on the resource, with a focus on hydrocarbons in Nordland, and mineral resources in Pajala and surrounding areas and in the Murmansk region. The relevance of global markets differed across the global SSPs as well as between local narratives. For example, in Nordland, the diversity of energy resources in the region was seen as making the region less dependent on a fossil-fuel economy than might be expected. However, a global future built on fossil fuel was seen as having major impacts on how the region develops in relation to urbanization, power issues, and competition for space with other activities. Industrial activities leading to competition for land was also a major concern at the Gávnnadeapmi workshop, where issues related to land rights and indigenous rights were seen as the most important driver 5.4.2.3 Global markets and their intersection with local economies and power structures