Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 5 · Future narratives

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The participants identified indigenous rights and traditional knowledge as the most important issues for understanding adaptation challenges for their livelihood,followed by industrial economic development and climate change (Figure 5.7). The workshop was held in September 2015. The narratives Fossil-fueled Development globally would mean that everybody is equal without any special attention given to indigenous rights. The focus on developing oil and gas thus pays no attention to indigenous land rights. In-migration leads to pressure on land. Indigenous youth often pursue science and technology careers rather than continue with reindeer herding and there is a loss in traditional knowledge and languages. Reindeer are genetically engineered and herding gives way to reindeer farming. Climate change creates more demand for grazing land and exacerbates land-use conflicts. Reindeer herding becomes even more challenging when reindeer‘get confused’ because of environmental changes. Sustainability : Indigenous rights are strong in this world and traditional knowledge is included in decision-making as well as in a unique education system for reindeer herding. The era of extractive industries in the north is of the past and economic development focuses on agriculture and small-scale businesses. The region attracts new people. Impacts of climate change are reduced owing to many opportunities for adaptation.Wealth is more equally distributed between center and periphery. Regional Rivalry : In this ‘gray’ world, industry is prioritized. Little attention is given to the values that nature provides, such as clean water and food. State control is strong and indigenous rights are weak. Priority to military demands drives increasing competition for land. International cooperation declines which also affects cooperation among indigenous peoples andmobility across borders for reindeer herders. Fewer resources are given to education, which especially affects indigenous education. Progressive people leave the region and there is an influx of cheap labor. Food production is intensified as countries need to be self-sufficient.

Energy (incl petroleum)

Climate change and its impacts

Demography

Business structure

Competence

Global economy

New conflicts

International security

National politics

Natural resources

Safety

Food security

Local politics

Consumption

Travel and transport

Uncertainty, % Importance, %

Health

Figure 5.6 Bodø workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations? (van Oort et al., 2015).

Sustainability : The world is ever more connected, and despite an increased green focus in all sectors and more climate- friendly energy use, there is a continued need for energy. In Nordland, climate change allows an increase in aquaculture, including production of algae or algae based-products, while coastal fish stocks are migrating north and new stocks and species are moving into the region. Bodø grows as a knowledge center. There is an increased focus on tourism, and the local military is downsized. Regional Rivalry : There is little development in Nordland and people focus onmaking ends meet, while environmental issues are disregarded.There is little international cooperation.A new knowledge structure develops around an increased focus on the primary sector. People feel disempowered but there is still local activism. Inequality : In a divided world, Nordland is a society with large differences, where a political and economic elite control energy production, prices and distribution patterns. While there are few investments from the national level, Nordland does well since it is a region rich in natural resources. The return to the ‘old ways’ with an elite controlling politics and resources gives rise to conflicts with and among the rest of the population. 5.4.1.4 Gávnnadeapmi workshop Reindeer herding is practiced throughout the Eurasian Arctic by a range of indigenous peoples.At the reindeer herding youth gathering Gávnnadeapmi 2015 , 30 young reindeer herders discussed current and future challenges for this livelihood. The participants were mostly Saami from Finland, Norway and Sweden, but also Nenets, Even and Evenki from Russia. Exercises similar to those in the workshops were carried out at the gathering, which also included presentations about issues in different localities and the adoption of the Gávnnadeapmi Declaration (http://reindeerherding.org/tag/gavnnadeapmi/).

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Indigenous rights

Traditional knowledge

Industrial economic development

Climate

National politics

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Business dev. in reindeer herding

Environmental damage

International cooperation

Education

Technology/infrastructure

Meat market prices

Uncertainty, % Importance, %

Relations to corporate actors

Population change/migration

Tourism

Values/worldviews

Figure 5.7 Gávnnadeapmi workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations?