Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

to the Murmansk region lack affinity to the region and leave when job opportunities end. International cooperation plays a significant role. Sustainability : In this world, technologies for environmentally- friendly mining and waste treatment are important for development in the Murmansk region. Demands for environmentally-friendly solutions to development problems force a transfer of decision-making to the local level, and a transition towards participatory regional governance. The political focus is on welfare and well-being of society as a whole, resulting in rising birth rates.Climate change requires increased investments for infrastructure. Regional Rivalry : While the global security situation worsens, the Russian federal center amasses administrative powers and develops the Murmansk region into anArctic military outpost of Russia. The area also becomes a point on the Northern Sea Route that links the Arctic region to the rest of the Russian Federation.Mining remains the basis of economic development. Risks relate to reduced environmental protection caused by efforts to cut costs for products and services. Inequality : In the divided world, the Murmansk region is completely transformed into a rawmaterials appendage of the central regions of the Russian Federation. Intense development of new mineral deposits reduces the areas available for traditional nature use (reindeer herding,mushroom and berry picking, fishing) and also creates difficulties with access for public recreation.The risks are related to a divided society and the emergence of nationalist political parties. 5.4.1.3 Bodø workshop Bodø is a municipality in the county of Nordland, Norway, and is also the county administrative center. Bodø is located in the middle of the county and, importantly, at the coast. Historically, Bodø has thrived as an important trade center for fish. Fisheries remains a key industry today, while economic activities related to trade, finance and administrative tasks are also significant. The Bodø region, which includes three municipalities, has 53,257 inhabitants and Bodø city has 39,384 inhabitants. The Bodø workshop participants represented local,regional and sector-specific perspectives, and included both practitioners and researchers.The participants identified energy/petroleum, climate, and demography as the most important drivers of change from a local/regional perspective, while local politics, global economy, and international security were ranked as the three most uncertain (Figure 5.6). The workshop was held in August 2015. The narratives Fossil-fueled Development globally translates to ‘full speed ahead’ for Nordland, with Bodø acting as a hub for the region’s oil and gas resources. New technologies, with demand for high competence and global capital, emerge across multiple economic sectors. The political landscape is more polarized with a greater focus on regional than local issues.

a variety of public sectors, gradually pushing the responsibility for welfare state functions over to municipalities, which results in a more local focus.Mining creates some jobs but there is also a growing service sector in which a large immigrant population is active. In this world, social tensions present a major risk. Inequality : In the divided world, Pajala attracts refugees and other immigrants. Risks include social tensions between a large and growing group of low-income households and a rich elite coming to the region for recreational or entrepreneurial purposes. Local resources are important for low-income groups. Local influence on important decisions declines and with a loss of trust in formal forms of collective decision- making, people increasingly rely on informal social networks in all aspects of life. A major uncertainty is the regional security situation. 5.4.1.2 Kirovsk workshop Kirovsk is a municipality located in the Murmansk region, Russia. Mining is the dominant industry. Winter tourism, developed in the Soviet era, is increasing due to the new regional development strategy. There are 29,000 inhabitants in the municipality, including Koashva village. The Kirovsk workshop participants were mostly regional representatives of industry, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), non- governmental organizations and academia.The workshop was held in June 2015. Discussions about locally and regionally relevant drivers highlighted the development of technologies and changing environmental conditions as particularly important. Participants perceived issues related to the impacts of climate change as the most uncertain, together with the changes in mineral resource markets (Figure 5.5). The narratives Fossil-fueled Development globally entails demand for advanced mining technologies, which for the Murmansk region leads to fewer job opportunities and an outflow of population. High demands on qualification of labor force drive increasing investment to education and human capital. Risks relate to fluctuation of international mineral markets. People that come

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Figure 5.5 Kirovsk workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations? (van Oort et al., 2015).