Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Box 5.2. Methodology for generating extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) The design of the scenario-building process is based on two premises. First, that the future development of the region will become increasingly interconnected with global development pathways. Second, that local actor involvement is necessary in order to comprehend the dynamics of future developments and for anchoring the scenarios in the local reality. A combined top-down/bottom-up process was therefore designed with the aimof producing local scenarios embedded in the global pathways as described by the SSP storylines (see Box 5.1), hence producing the so-called ‘extended SSPs’ (Figure 5.2). This is one of the first projects to use this combined approach. Another early example was given by Absar and Preston (2015), who developed sub- national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socio-economic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast.

Locally-relevant drivers of change were identified by asking participants to write down the two most relevant drivers in relation to factors that would bemost pertinent for answering the focus question.These were then placed on a wall,creating a shared work-think space for the exercise. Ideas that had similarities with notes that had been posted earlier were placed in the vicinity of the first note, which provided some initial clustering.The organizers later arranged these initial clusters into a number of distinct categories that were given cluster names. To prioritize clusters that would be used for developing extended SSPs,the participants‘voted’for themost important cluster and the ones with most associated uncertainty, using colored sticky ‘dots’.The clusters were ranked by adding the number of votes on importance, with a separate ranking for the number of votes on uncertainty. Those scoring highly on both parameters were selected as the major topics for the group discussion that followed. To discuss how the prioritized clusters of drivers might play out at a specific scale or in a specific sector, the workshop participants were divided into groups,with each group given the task of talking about what the prioritized clusters might entail at the local and regional level given a specific set of boundary conditions. These boundary conditions were given by the global SSPs described in Box 5.1: Fossil-fueled Development, Sustainability, Regional Rivalry, or Inequality. The group discussions generated a very rich material, which was narrated by the workshop organizers based on notes taken during the group discussions and reports from the subsequent plenary session. The results are summarized in Section 5.4.1.

The specific methodology made use of highly interactive workshops to facilitate a process that fostered inclusion of local and regional voices. The focus question for the workshops was: What future changes may influence this region economically,environmentally and socially within the perspective of one to two generations?The time perspective was thus longer than the time horizon for most policy- related planning processes, such as spatial planning, but still relevant and useful in relation to needs for dealing with uncertainty in decision-making.The geographic perspective, or focal spatial scale, was on the local and county levels for each of the specific settings. All workshops started with presentations from local participants aimed at familiarizing everyone with local challenges and to give these perspectives a priority in issue framing.The workshops also included some presentations on different topics that were deemed relevant by the workshop organizers. Topics included climate change, aquaculture, and geopolitics.

What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations?

Identifying issues of importance, and uncertainty: drivers of change

Ranking: Which drivers are most important? Most Uncertain?

Voting

Global SSPs and group discussions

Fossil-fueled Development: Taking the Highway

Four local storylines

Regional Rivalry: A Rocky Road

Inequality: A Road Divided

Sustainability: The Green Road

Figure 5.2 Methodology for producing an extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP).

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