Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Executive Summary

population in many areas of the region is also creating challenges for local governments. Employment reflects trends towards urbanization, with the secondary sector – processing, production and construction – accounting for a large part of the employment in Fennoscandia and some Russian areas. The extreme and rapidly changing weather, environmental disasters, new diseases, loss of food, water and housing security, and wildfires and floods could increase negative impacts on human health and well-being. Interlinkages and cumulative impacts Multiple, interconnected factors associated with climate change are affecting local communities,ecosystems and the geophysical environment, with consequences for water and food security, infrastructure,and ecosystemgoods and services.Themagnitude of change depends on the development and interaction of social and environmental systems over time.What is new today is the scale, scope, intensity and speed of change. Eroded ecosystem services Environmental and social systems are interconnected. Changes such as rising temperatures, diminishing sea ice and ocean acidification interact with changes in the location and intensity of human activities such as fishing and transportation.The impacts manifest in changes in coastal and marine species, ecosystems and their services,and related livelihoods and economic activity. In terrestrial ecosystems, ongoing cryospheric and hydrological change are already having consequences.Harvesting, transport, and industrial activities are causing intensified and cumulative impacts on ecosystems,and subsequently on ecosystem services and ecosystem dependent livelihoods. Marine mammals in the Barents area are being affected by changes in prey community composition.They are also sensitive to noise, chemical pollution and disturbance from human activities, all of which are increasing with the declining sea ice.Changes in the abundance and distribution of these animals have direct impacts on local economies, linked to the intensity of subsistence and commercial use of these animals. Invasive species, pests and diseases are becoming more prevalent due to a combination of increased transport and tourism, higher temperatures, and a longer growing season. This is occurring at the expense of Arctic species. In some cases, shifts may negatively affect the structure and function of entire ecosystems. Reduced resilience to change Society’s ability to respond to future changemay diminish through the erosion of ecosystem services and societal resilience. The interacting changes may undermine the state’s ability to provide the conditions necessary for critical infrastructure, resource management, management of land use conflict, and health care. Plant and animal populations with limited options to shift geographically as the environment changes are very vulnerable. Changes in landscapes, ecosystems and species that represent natural resources may undermine livelihoods, compromise culture and identity, and increase the need for relocation. Indigenous peoples are especially exposed to the consequences of climate change due to their dependence on the environment for food, lifestyle, and culture.

Economic development over the longer term will be increasingly linked to the extent of diversification of local economies and the capacity to facilitate innovation. For example, the declining sea ice will present both opportunities (due to the opening up of new areas for oil and gas exploration and better conditions for shipping) and challenges (more frequent storms and icing events will pose technical challenges, particularly to marine operations, and increase the risk of oil spills in sensitive areas). Economic development will also depend on global demand for the region’s petroleum products, which may be influenced by competing energy sources, and climate policies. Renewable energy production is expected to become a more important energy source. Wind power is already expanding, and hydropower production is likely to benefit from increased precipitation. Industries will be affected Themining industry is vulnerable to climate change through the changes expected in hydrology and future water management. The mining sector is also very sensitive to non-climate related factors such as changing demand for rawmaterials and changes in global mineral and metal market prices. Shipping in the Kara and Pechora seas is expected to increase following the decline in ice cover. Svalbard and Franz Josef Land will become more accessible and their significance as a tourist destination is expected to continue to increase. Fishing in the Barents Sea will almost certainly continue to expand northward. Tourism and primary industries will need to adapt Tourist operators will need to adapt to the new climate and socio-economic conditions. Lack of snow would have negative consequences for traditional winter tourism, although longer summers would create more favorable conditions for summer tourism, including cruise-ship ventures. Climate changes are likely to affect growth, productivity and distribution of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather,and other factors.Awarming climate can increase forest productivity, and can support forestry in areas where it is not currently possible.However, shorter and warmer winters would make harvestingmore difficult.The warming climatemight also increase the risk of forest damage by pests,diseases andwildfires. Warmer and longer growing seasons are expected to result in higher agricultural productivity, but long warm autumns may weaken winter hardening and predispose grazing land to winter damage. In cases where local plant breeding does not include varieties suited to the change in conditions,decreased economic output is likely. Reindeer pastures are under increasing pressure from industrial and infrastructure development, urbanization, land fragmentation, regulations, and rising temperatures, among other factors. Pasture fragmentation reduces herders’ ability to respond to the increasingly unstable and unpredictable weather conditions by moving their herds to other areas. Service provision by local governments is under pressure Infrastructure such as roads, harbors, electricity grids and pipelines is vulnerable due to higher precipitation, thawing permafrost, greater frequency of storm events, more frequent freeze-thaw cycles, and increased risk of floods and landslides. Higher waves and storm surges put coastal infrastructure at risk. All such phenomena can lead to road closures and the disruption of energy supply, goods and services. An ageing