Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Climate change and impact scenarios have also been developed in relation to specific sectors, such as health (e.g.,AMAP, 2014), agriculture (e.g., Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2010; Rønning, 2011), forestry,and tourism (Hille et al.,2011).In the case of agriculture, and typical of scenarios for the sector, impact analyses were made in relation to climate change, which were then analyzed in the context of today’s agriculture- and climate policy.As such, these scenarios relate not somuch to different or trending socio- economic futures,but rather to those challenges that exist for the sector given future climatic but current political constrictions. Scenarios focusing on the regional to local and sectoral level often use one or more socio-economic narratives to explore a range of futures, in addition to information about climate change impacts. One example is the ArcRisk project (AMAP, 2014),which developed different pollution and health scenarios for the Arctic (including the Barents area) that included scenarios showing how different policy options could lead to alternative pathways for the future chemical contamination levels in the environment. Health impact analyses for Norway and Sweden were based on assumptions of a high level of adaptation and an aging population in the North. Another example concerns the scenarios developed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) for a mapping of adaptation action across Sweden, which include attention to national security and migration issues (Andersson et al., 2015). The mapping covers several sectors and draws on inputs from a wide range of experts, from the private and public sectors, as well as input from selected government agencies. Several research projects cover climate and socio-economic change in municipalities in the Barents area (e.g., Groven et al., 2008; CAVIAR, 2009; NORADAPT, 2011). In these cases, socio- economic scenarios typically focus on more near term-futures (2040 and 2025), and are based on current trends and‘business as usual’ scenarios without adaptation measures. Another example of a research-driven process is the Climatools project, which focused on tailoring scenario methodology to the needs of local and municipal stakeholders. One of the case studies aimed at testing the method, involved the local planning body of Umeå in Västerbotten county (Carlsen et al., 2012). The researchers developed socio-economic scenarios starting from the needs of the end-users,without linking local to global socio- economic scenarios. The TWASE project (Haavisto et al., 2016) has developed six socio-economic scenarios for 2040 for the Eurasian Arctic, presented as narratives.The primary focus is on the development of shipping, resource extraction and tourism industries. The main input to the scenarios was obtained through an expert workshop and the resulting scenario for 2040 was presented along the three dimensions: open–closed, public–private and dirty–clean. The main conclusion is that environmental changes, political shifts and technological development all have the potential to cause drastic new developments in the region. The MERMAID–project has developed socio-economic scenarios to identify risks and opportunities for Arctic marine 5.2.3.2 Scenarios with a substantial input of socio-economic information

of areal planning and civil protection, where the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) provided guidelines with regard to methodology and analysis.The ROS reports include impact assessments as well as maps of risk and frequency of incidents such as avalanches or floods. In Sweden, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrographical Institute (SMHI) generated climate scenarios to inform the 2007 national benchmark report on climate change,vulnerability and adaptation (Swedish Commission on Climate andVulnerability, 2007), as well as subsequent regional reports (e.g., Norrbotten County Administrative Board, 2009). These county-level reports have formed the basis for issue-specific reports relating, for example, to areal planning, in some cases down to the individual municipal level (Länsstyrelsen Norrbotten, 2012, 2015). The Swedish national and county-based reports are all expert-based, involving either county advisors or consultants, with climate input from SMHI.The 2007 national report was followed up in 2015 by a comprehensive review of future risks and consequences of climate change that involved broad consultation with government agencies, municipalities, researchers and business organizations (Andersson et al., 2015). Moreover, SMHI released new reports for all Swedish counties based on data from regional climate models, statistically downscaled to provide geographically detailed information about climate trends in Sweden. The material is available via an interactive website (SMHI, 2015). In Finland, climate projections and climate impact projections have been developed by the FINADAPT project (Assessing the adaptive capacity of the Finnish environment and society under a changing climate) (Carter et al., 2005), in the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme (ISTO) (Ruuhela, 2012) and in the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA).The climate projections were used in national reports, including Finland’s National Strategy forAdaptation to Climate Change (Marttila et al., 2005), Finland’s Sixth National Communication under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (Monni, 2013), and Finland’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2022 (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2014).Partially through the web portal climateguide.fi,they also informed regional scenarios used in Northern Ostrobothnia (the Oulu Region), Lapland and Kainuu, where different economic sectors and key civil organizations were involved in the final stages of the scenario development process (e.g., Himanen et al., 2012). In the Russian Federation, scenarios for theArctic have usually been commissioned by federal policy-makers responsible for regional development and then developed in academic settings. Recent scenarios were mainly based on an official federal report that assessed the macroeconomic consequences of climate change projections in the Russian Federation (Katsov and Porfiryev, 2010; Frolov, 2014; Roshydromet, 2014). Scenario methodology is usually combined with SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) and with different types of system analysis. The scenarios are usually either normative (asking how a specific future can be reached) or predictive (when related to climate change as such),and focus mostly on climate change. However, some scenarios have also elaborated on projected socio-economic changes in terms of climate impacts.

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