Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

111

Chapter 5 · Future narratives

Table 5.1 Selected key assumptions in four of the global SSPs (based on O’Neill et al., 2017).

Selection of SSP elements

Fossil-fueled Development: Taking the Highway

Sustainability: The Green Road

Regional Rivalry: A Rocky Road

Inequality: A Road Divided

Policies and institutions Environmental policies

Improved management; strong regulations

Low priority for environmental issues

Focus on local environment in middle and high-income countries; no attention to vulnerable areas or global issues Towards benefit of the political and business elite

Focus on local environment and benefits to well-being, little concern with global issues Towards development and human capital with free markets Increasingly effective, fostering competitive markets

Towards sustainable development

Towards security

Policy orientation

Effective for elite, not for rest of society

Institutions

Effective

Weak global; national governments dominate societal decision-making

Human development Education

High

High

Low

Very low to medium, unequal

Social cohesion and equity

High

High

Low

Low, stratified with medium equity

Health investments

High

High

Low

Unequal within regions, lower in low-income countries

Economy and lifestyle Economic inequality

Strongly reduced, especially across countries Strongly globalized and increasingly connected markets Materialism, status consumption, tourism, mobility, meat-rich diets

Reduced across and within countries Connected markets, regional production

High, especially across countries De-globalizing; regional security

High, especially within countries

Globally connected elite

Globalization

Material intensive consumption

Elites: high consumption lifestyle; Rest: low consumption and mobility

Low growth in material consumption, low meat diets, first in high-income countries

Consumption and diet

Demography Population growth

Relatively low

Relatively low

Low in OECD; High in high-fertility countries

Low in OECD, relatively high elsewhere

Technology

Rapid

Rapid

Slow

Rapid in high-tech economies and sectors; slow in others. Little transfer within countries to poorer populations

Technology development and transfer

Low/medium

High

Low

High (especially in regions with domestic fossil fuel resources)

Carbon (energy) intensity

Environment and natural resources Environmental status

Improving conditions

Serious degradation Highly managed and improved near high-income areas, degraded otherwise

Highly engineered approaches, successful management of local issues

5.2.3 Barents scenario work Scenarios are generally developed to inform decision makers within a certain sector, region or country.This section provides examples of typical approaches employed in the different countries of the Barents area, with a focus on methodology, inclusion of climate and socio-economic scenarios, and the level of local or regional actor participation in the scenario- building process.

5.2.3.1 Scenarios primarily based on climate information In Norway, scenario development is connected to the national level (Miljøverndepartementet, 2010), but also serves as a resource for planning and climate adaptation at the municipal and sectoral level (e.g., Meteorologisk institutt et al., 2009). Local and sectoral work is driven in part by research projects and in part by the national requirement for all municipalities to perform a risk and vulnerability (ROS) analysis in the context