Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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5. Future narratives

Coordinating lead authors : Annika E Nilsson, Ingrid Bay-Larsen Lead authors : Henrik Carlsen, Kirsti Jylhä, Lize-Marie van der Watt, Bob van Oort Contributing authors : Maiken Bjørkan, Anatoli Bourmistrov, Niklas Eklund, Ludmila Isaeva, Ludmila Ivanova, Galina Kharitanova, Elena Klyuchnikova, Vladimir Masloboev, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola

details of the future are inherently uncertain. Trajectories that we take for granted will change direction, and surprises will occur due to unexpected events or because different drivers of change interact in ways that we do not fully understand. Just like extreme weather events, there are likely to be societal and economic events beyond what is normally expected. Unusual events often catch society by surprise and are therefore much more likely to strain society’s immediate capacities than slower and more foreseeable changes or events with recent parallels that may have already initiated some changes in response strategies. There is also the potential for major shifts in the structure of ecosystems and how they relate to social structures, so-called regime shifts (Arctic Council, 2013). Regardless of how much we try to forecast the future, we will encounter developments that are beyond the consideration of various planning processes, and indeed beyond the imagination of most people. We nevertheless plan for the future. Individuals might save money, make investments and choose education because of specific expectations for the future. Moreover, in formal planning processes related to, for instance, land use or public investments, assumptions about the future are inevitable. While rapid environmental and social changes make planning for the future more challenging, the policy goal of sustainable development entails a responsibility towards future generations and therefore an imperative to both think ahead and to find ways for navigating the increased space of uncertainty.Uncertainty – in the broad generic sense – can be met inmany ways, including investment in increased knowledge and by various forms of insurances and general capacity building. An important complementary strategy is to use narration to see how current development paths and scenarios might change according to values, scales and multiple end-user perspectives (for better or for worse). Such scenario-inspired narratives can serve as backdrops for decisions that are likely to have long-term consequences, including decisions about adaptation actions. The aim of this chapter is to provide a structured approach for thinking about the future in the Barents area and to provide narratives about potential futures to facilitate discussions about adaptation actions and other long-term planning in the region. The focus is not on forecasting but on sketching a broad range of explorative scenarios to highlight some of the inevitable uncertainty that we have to live with and which should ideally be considered in today’s decision making. The chapter builds on the premise that developments in the Barents area will be increasingly linked to global processes – both social and environmental – but also that these linkages will play out differently in different places across the Barents area and that understanding local impacts requires engaging in a co-production of knowledge with local and regional actors.

5.1 Introduction What will the Barents area look like in the future? How will the regional development path relate to the rest of the world? While some overarching trends are certain to continue because of the inherent inertia in geophysical and societal systems, the • Nesting local and regional narratives with global scenario narratives increases the potential for comparing prospects for mitigation, impact, adaptation, and vulnerabilities across different municipalities, regions and sectors. The pilot workshops conducted for the AACA shows that such an approach is useful for gathering insights from local and regional actors but also that further work is needed to engage with a broader group of people. Key messages • National adaptation programs and research projects in the Barents area increasingly use regionally adapted scenarios. These are based on down-scaled results from climate models and sometimes also socio-economic factors. In some cases narratives about potential futures are used . • Participatory methods that use narratives as a communication interface can help overcome an observed ‘disconnect’ between the experts and practitioners. Narratives are especially relevant for ‘translating’ complex scientific data to a more understandable form and for combining insights from diverse perspectives, scales and streams of knowledge. Narratives of possible futures highlight the perception and saliency of current trends but nevertheless have major implications for decisions related to adaptation. • Local mitigation and adaptation challenges are closely linked to global developments not only regarding climate change but also in relation to resource markets, international security, values and norms, and technology development. This conclusion is based on results from four scenario workshops with local and regional actors. In a time perspective of 30 to 50 years, the uncertainties related to social factors may for the Barents area be greater than any uncertainties related to the direct impacts of climate change. • Challenges to mitigation and adaptation can vary greatly depending on the local and/or regional economic structures, resource base and demography. This conclusion is based on results from four scenario workshops in different locations. The diversity of contexts within the Barents area makes it difficult to draw regional- level conclusions about adaptation challenges.