Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 4 · Physical and socio-economic environment

What climate information has been used for identifying a link between climate and the sector?

How has climate data been used to establish links with climate?

General knowledge from agricultural meteorology

Statistical modeling

Vegetational modeling; reindeer statistics (weight of the reindeer, number of calves born...); small mammals statistics; changes in vegetation, both changes in type of dominating vegetation (i.e.shrubs are increasing at the expense of herbs and grasses) as well as percentage cover (denser vegetation at higher altitudes and latitudes) has been demonstrated. Ecosystem modelling to project how different trophic levels in the marine ecosystem will be affected.

Snowbeds are becoming smaller (direct effect of temperature and precipitation as snow), reindeer movements change (or additional fodder has been needed); warm water species are expanding, lowland species are mowing upwards/northwards (longer growing season allows them to finish their cycle even at higher altitudes/latitudes); icing events can be linked to problems for small mammals living in the subnival (the space between the ground and snow) zone;

Knowledge on vessels limitations on weather and ice conditions

Climate modelling

Based on qualitative comments and speculations during scenario workshop

No specific data used.

General knowledge from biology

Statistical modeling, numerical modeling, GLOBIO

Most models making predictions of forest productivity in the future use the length of growing season and/or effective (>+5°C) temperature sum as a climate variable.What is not used, but can very important e.g. for the survival of the seedlings, is the frequency of warm spells during the winter (that can lead to ice layers on the soil surface or in the snow).

Length of growing season and/or effective (>+5°C) temperature sum. To lesser extent the amount of precipitation.

Daily observations for temperature, precipitation and snow depth over at least 25 years.

Anecdotal evidence

Established limitations of oil and gas platforms to weather conditions Climate modeling

Vegetational modeling, reindeer statistics (weight of the reindeer, number of calves born...),...

Clear patterns have been demonstrated linking causes and effects: Temperature and date of thawing of lakes, temperature fluctuations and icing events,changes in temperature and precipitation leads to less/smaller snow beds and so on

Joint analyses of climate data and shipping routes properties

Climate modeling