Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 4 · Physical and socio-economic environment

activities in the Arctic as well as elsewhere also represents a substantial source of uncertainty, and the risk is affected by

experience and empirical information, however, we can still count on an uneven development within theArctic in the future. The regional details and differences make the picture both more complicated and more uncertain. There is also limited knowledge concerning global megatrends, and it is expected that there will be unanticipated shifts, ruptures (e.g. ‘Brexit’) and surprises (unknown unknowns). One way to deal with uncertainties associated with a complex situation that involves many entangled dimensions is to address ‘what-if ’ questions and explore the range of plausible outcomes,perhaps through simulations and gaming technology. For instance, it is possible to explore different effects of the urbanization process, which may involve both a scenario where people move from rural to urban areas as well as in the other direction. Furthermore, it is possible to consider how age and employment may affect society and its institutions. The professional structure in a community may also change as many routine tasks and low-skilled jobs disappear contributing to greater income disparities. Hence, it is plausible with an increasing polarization of the labor markets.The emergence of sharing and circular economy (“green shift”) may also provide new opportunities and challenges. Other known unknowns may be that the economic growth differs regionally and most likely will depend on leading technology which has not yet been invented. Furthermore, the future economic growth, energy demand, and energy mix depend on a number of factors, such as the global political, economic and ecological stability and progress.If fusion energy 9 succeeds, then the picture will be radically changed, and the current power structure will probably change in its wake. Moreover, the consequences of technological progress will generate new opportunities and challenges, in terms of politics, culture, livelihood, economy, and environment.The geopolitical climate will also likely depend on individual people as well as the public opinion, political decisions, economy, technology, environment,and corporations.Will theUNFCCCcommitment be respected,or will the greenhouse gas concentrations continue to grow as it has done since Kyoto 1997? This source of uncertainty can be illustrated with the case where member countries of the Arctic council pledge to CO 2 reduction yet simultaneously push for a continued fossil fuel exploitation in theArctic.A society with global connection is also likely to feel the geographical diversity in the effect of climate change,which at the present is poorly known,andwhere people and economies in some regions can expect to feel the effects more adversely. For example, drought, heat, and ocean inundation may trigger economic recession, conflicts andmass migration, and drought in some region may affect the import and export needs of agricultural products. The availability of climate information varies from place to place due to national data policies and investment in early warning systems and climate services 10 , all of which provide a basis for risk analysis and management. One consequence may be that future businesses will seek locations where they are less exposed and the climate related risks are well documented when climate extremes are getting more severe. In many places, there will be little information. The danger of major accidents or oil spills associated with

climate change. Research gaps

There are several research gaps which need further research, suchmonitoring, simulation, and downscaling of precipitation, wind, storm tracks, snow, ice, natural variability, and tipping points. The connection between climate change and socio- economic impacts needs to be elucidated, and there is lack of understanding of sources of uncertainties and how they interact.

9 https://www.iter.org/ 10 https://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_services.php