Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

x

Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

northward shifts in boreal zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals at the expense of Arctic species. Critical ecosystem services are changing Freshwaters and wetlands contain a multitude of habitats and species and provide a wide range of key ecosystem services, such as the maintenance of permafrost, water regulation and filtration, and the storage of vast amounts of greenhouse gases. Such regulating services are critical for human well- being at a local and regional scale, but are also important globally in terms of climate regulation and conservation of biodiversity. Snowmelt and spring flooding occur earlier in the season. The timing of ice formation on waterways is shifting, affecting the seasonal movements of reindeer as well as their migration routes. In the Barents area, warming combined with changes in hydrology have already led to increased growth and spread of tall shrubs, while mosses and lichens are declining. Projections indicate gradual extension northwards and upwards (in mountain areas) of both pine and deciduous trees. Forest ecosystems are also increasingly affected by pest outbreaks and wildfires, with implications for forestry that require adaptive responses. Nutrient cycling is expected to accelerate.The shifts in the vegetation zones are causing wide-range impacts for ecosystem services and ecosystem-dependent livelihoods. As the treeline moves northward, so too do species such as heather and grasses.The spread of invasive species is expected to increase. Diversity, range and distribution are already changing for many animal species. Growth seasons are shifting and extending, and primary production in both terrestrial and marine areas is changing. These ongoing changes are causing a decline in native species and an increase in invasive species. Measured over several decades, many commercial fish populations are currently at record high levels, while most endemic Arctic invertebrates, fish, birds and mammals are facing challenges of various types due to climate warming, particularly those with lifecycles associated with sea ice. Climate change is an important driver of societal change, but it is not the only important driver.The main non-climate global drivers of socio-economic change include increasing population, economic growth, technology development, increased demand for and use of natural resources and energy, and international cooperation.Megatrends and global actors from outside the Barents area are likely to play an ever more important role in the future, through migration, resource markets, investment, and government policies and commitments. For instance, the development of Arctic hydrocarbon and mineral resources will be influenced not only by global market forces, but also by international climate and adaptation policies. These prevailing socio-economic conditions interact with climate change impacts in complex ways that may exacerbate current community challenges.The opportunities and implications for the different sub-regions of the Barents area will depend on the availability of natural and human resources, institutional characteristics, and the policies adopted. Key socio-economic changes Global actors and demand for resources

Barents area. There is a need for adaptation at both the local level (adaptation to direct and indirect impacts) and national level (governance for adaptation to complex issues), and at the international level (cooperation on common challenges).

Key environmental changes A ‘hot-spot’ for warming

The Arctic is warming much faster than the global average, and the Barents area is a ‘hot-spot’ even within the Arctic context. Under a mid-range scenario for emission growth (RCP4.5), average winter temperatures are projected to rise by 3–10°C between 2010 and 2080, and by up to 20°C by the end of the century.Warming of the Arctic has already had direct impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems in the Barents area. Increased frequency of natural hazards, such as storms, avalanches, extreme wave heights and icebergs are all linked with warming. Sea ice decline will strongly impact ice-dependent species Ice extent in the Barents Sea varies from year to year, but the main development has been a clear decline, and the Barents Sea is projected to become the first Arctic region free of ice all year round by mid-century. This single environmental change will have enormous consequences; especially for those species that depend on sea ice as habitat. Reduced sea ice in combination with sea-level rise and high winds can result in significantly higher waves and greater storm surges,which will be a challenge for coastal infrastructure. However, sea-level rise is expected to vary. For some areas the land is still rising following the disappearance of the Fennoscandian ice sheet at the end of the last period of glaciation.Along theNorwegian coast,for example, sea-level projections vary by as much as 0.5 m depending on local conditions. Impacts also depend on the local features of the coastline (low-lying, erosion prone versus steep and rocky). Snow cover is changing Seasonal snow cover in the Barents area plays a critical role in the hydrological regime and for plant and animal life.Currently, snow depth is decreasing in inland regions but increasing in coastal areas. Annual maximum snow depth has increased in colder regions such as Russia.Another trend is towards earlier snow-free dates in spring. Permafrost in decline A combination of rising temperatures and changing patterns of snowfall is leading to reductions in the extent and depth of permafrost over large areas. More frequent rain-on-snow events Changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies. Higher temperatures mean more precipitation is expected to fall as rain, among others increasing the risk of rain-on-snow events during winter.These cause ice layers within the snowpack In the marine environment, climate change brings warmer, less saline seawater, changes in sea-ice extent and thickness, and sea-level rise, while higher concentrations of carbon dioxide lead to ocean acidification.These physical and chemical changes affect biological systems, resulting in higher phytoplankton productivity in previously ice-covered waters as well as that prevent animals from grazing. Widespread change in ecosystems