Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Tankers in convoy behind icebreaker

the Arctic coastal states declared that UNCLOS should form the basis for Arctic Ocean governance. There are still some disputes regarding the legal status of the shipping lanes along the coasts of Canada and Russia, and some maritime borders are not clarified, but all the main resources in the Arctic are already under clear national jurisdiction and the delimitation of the outer continental shelves beyond the 200-nm exclusive economic zones proceeds according to the rules laid down under UNCLOS. The Arctic states have also recently adopted legally binding agreements on cooperation in maritime and aeronautical search and rescue and on cooperation in oil spill response, and have agreed on conservation measures for fisheries in the central Arctic Ocean. To retain their governance prerogatives, the Arctic states are obliged to cooperate. The level of international cooperation is important for the future of the Barents area. For the people living in the region, national policies are evenmore important.The countries differ in terms of legal-institutional frameworks, sets of collective actors, and decision-making processes. While Russia is a federal state with weak democratic traditions, the Nordic countries are unitary states with strong democratic traditions. The countries’ overall economic policies and welfare systems affect all aspects of human development.Another key element is the strategies adopted to develop the northern regions, which will be determined by economic prospects, security and geopolitical considerations, and the willingness and ability of governments to support the peripheral areas relative to the central parts of the countries. In each country, the institutional context and historical legacies tend to create a path-dependent pattern of development.

4.6 Discussion This section summarizes the key findings arising from this quantitative (where possible) description of what is likely to shape the future Barents area in terms of its regional climate, and the physical and socio-economic environment. The aim is to provide a starting point for the following chapters on resilience and adaptation actions. This summary highlights (1) those changes of greatest relevance for ecosystems and society, (2) positive and negative impacts on environmental and socio-economic conditions, (3) possible feedbacks between environmental and socio-economic processes, and (4) knowledge gaps (uncertainties). Strongest impacts . Those changes in the Barents area likely to have the strongest impacts on ecosystems and society include: •• Present day to 2030 : faster warming at higher latitudes; a shift to seasonal sea-ice cover and a substantial reduction in sea- ice cover in winter; increased frequency of natural hazards, linked with overall warming: polar lows, storms, rain-on- snow events, avalanches, extreme wave heights, and icebergs; and stronger trade and investment in transportation, fisheries and natural resource extraction. •• Near to mid-term (2030–2080) : a plausible picture will be an ice-free sea all year round; a substantial increase in ocean acidification; different ocean currents and hydrographic conditions; a substantially shorter snow season; substantial degradation of permafrost; increased urbanization; and increasing risk of pollution, degradation of ecosystems and irreversible biodiversity loss.